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The Factor-Proportions Model With Many Nations, Goods and Factors: Theory and Evidence

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1983 65(2), 298
RECENTLY, several authors have markedly improved our understanding of the factorproportions trade model when there are arbitrarily many goods, factors and/or nations. Vanek (1968) appears to be the first rigorously to derive theorems, in the spirit of the simple Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) theory, concerning the factor content of a nation's total trade. Subsequently, Horiba (1974) has investigated conditions under which Vanek's results hold bilaterally for trade among many nations. Lastly, in Harkness (1978), I considered the implications of Vanek's model for a nation's total, but not its bilateral, commodity trade. Nonetheless, none of these models nor their implications have been subjected to rigorous empirical tests.' This paper provides such tests on observed trade patterns among Canada, the United States and the Rest-of-the-World (ROW). Section I briefly reviews the Vanek-Horiba version of the factor-proportions model, demonstrating how a nation's total and bilateral net factor-service trade flows are linked to her total and bilateral relative factor endowments. The implications for direct commodity trade are derived in section II by extension of my earlier (1978) results. Section III deals with problems arising from the absence of some data necessary to empirical implementation of the model. Section IV presents the results of empirical tests. Conclusions are found in section V.

A Spectral-Analytic Test of the Long-Swing Hypothesis in Canada

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1968 50(4), 429
T HE recent development of spectral analysis as a tool for analyzing economic time series has provided a particularly neat method for independently testing the existence of Kuznets cycles. Researchers who have applied this technique, however, have produced mixed results. Adelman shows that such cycles do not exist in the United States data ' while Hatanaka and Howrey, in a criticism of Adelman's work, leave readers with, at best, an agnostic view.2 But both these studies have been poorly conceived with respect both to spectral analysis and to the particular version of the longswing hypothesis tested. The intention of this paper is to attempt to resolve the long-swing controversy, insofar as the Canadian data are concerned, by the application of spectral analysis to a large number of historical time series. For the purpose of comparison with results obtained in the United States this will initially mean applying what might be called the Adelman-Hatanaka-Howrey test. Finally, however, this test will be reformulated and reworked in a manner which is more compatible with spectral analysis and which makes more sense with respect to the long-swing hypothesis. Section II briefly describes and lists some important properties of spectral analysis while section III presents some of the practical considerations involved in applying this technique to the long-swing controversy. Section IV summarizes the results of the spectral estimates. Conclusions are in section V. IL