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Insider trading and the long-run performance of new security issues

Journal of Corporate Finance 2000 6(1), 25-53
This paper uses insider trading around new security issues to provide evidence of managerial timing ability. I show that insider sales increase and purchases decrease prior to issues of information-sensitive securities (convertible debt and equity) by industrial firms. I then examine the relation between insider trading and subsequent stock returns. Although not all equity issues are motivated by overvaluation, those where managers sell prior to the issue are more likely to be. I find that industrial firms with abnormal insider selling underperform in the long run, whereas those with abnormal buying do not. There is no evidence of a relation between abnormal selling and future performance for utility offerings, however. Overall, the evidence is consistent with poor long-term performance being due to overvaluation.

When a buyback isn’t a buyback: open market repurchases and employee options

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 63(2), 235-261
This paper examines how stock options affect the decision to repurchase shares. Firms announce repurchases when executives have large numbers of options outstanding and when employees have large numbers of options currently exercisable. Once the decision to repurchase is made, the amount repurchased is positively related to total options exercisable by all employees but independent of managerial options. These results are consistent with managers repurchasing both to maximize their own wealth and to fund employee stock option exercises. The market appears to recognize this motive, however, and reacts less positively to repurchases announced by firms with high levels of nonmanagerial options.

Firm Performance, Capital Structure, and the Tax Benefits of Employee Stock Options

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2005 40(1), 135-160
This paper analyzes the relation between the capital structure of a firm and the tax benefits realized from the exercise of stock options. Theory suggests that firms with tax benefits from the exercise of stock options should carry less debt since tax benefits are a non-debt tax shield. We find that both long- and short-term debt ratios are negatively related to the size of tax benefits from option exercise. Moreover, one-year changes in long-term leverage are negatively related to changes in the number of options exercised. Such a relation does not exist for changes in short-term leverage. Finally, firms with option-related tax benefits tend to issue equity, with the net amount of equity issued an increasing function of these tax benefits.

Executive Loans

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2004 39(4), 791-811
This paper analyzes the characteristics and impact of loans made to executives for stock purchase, option exercise, and relocation. We find that loans made to assist executives in purchasing stock or exercising options are larger and have higher interest rates than relocation loans. All types of loans, however, are issued at below-market interest rates, on average. We also find that while stock purchase loans are given to managers with low existing ownership, option exercise loans are given to managers with high existing ownership and high cash compensation. Finally, our results indicate that executive stock ownership increases following stock purchase and option exercise loans. For managers as a whole, a loan that enables a manager to buy 100 shares of stock results in only an eight share increase in ownership. However, the relation between ownership changes and stock purchase loans is much stronger for low ownership managers.

The Impact of Industry Classifications on Financial Research

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1996 31(3), 309
Using approximately 10,000 firms jointly covered by Compustat and CRSP from 1974–1993, we find substantial differences in the SIC codes designated by the two databases. More than 36 percent of the classifications disagree at the two-digit level and nearly 80 percent disagree at the four-digit level. We examine the impact of these differences upon financial research in several ways. First, we show that the classification of utilities, financial firms, and conglomerate acquisitions are affected by the choice of CRSP vs. Compustat SIC codes. Second, we show that industry classification matters in financial research by illustrating that size- and industry-matched comparisons are more powerful than pure size matches. Third, we test the specification and power of Compustat vs. CRSP classifications by simulating a typical financial experiment in which sample firms are matched to control firms by industry. We find that: i) Compustat matched samples are more powerful than CRSP matched samples in detecting abnormal performance; ii) nonparametric tests outperform parametric tests; and iii) four-digit SIC code matches are more powerful than two-digit SIC code matches. These results are robust to the inclusion or exclusion of extreme values, and hold for both NYSE/AMEX and Nasdaq firms.

Declining propensity to pay? A re-examination of the lifecycle theory

Journal of Corporate Finance 2014 27, 345-366
Our results indicate that the declining propensity to pay is a function of the changing composition of firms over time and not a declining propensity in individual firms themselves. In particular, the propensity to pay is greater than expected following the 2003 dividend tax cut. The decade a firm went public is also a major determinant of its initial payout policy. Finally, while the strength of the relation between earned/contributed capital and payout propensity declines across IPO decades, there is still a lifecycle effect — within a given IPO cohort, the likelihood of payout increases as firms age.

Access to capital, investment, and the financial crisis

Journal of Financial Economics 2013 110(2), 280-299
During the recent financial crisis, corporate borrowing and capital expenditures fall sharply. Most existing research links the two phenomena by arguing that a shock to bank lending (or, more generally, to the corporate credit supply) caused a reduction in capital expenditures. The economic significance of this causal link is tenuous, as we find that (1) bank-dependent firms do not decrease capital expenditures more than matching firms in the first year of the crisis or in the two quarters after Lehman Brother's bankruptcy; (2) firms that are unlevered before the crisis decrease capital expenditures during the crisis as much as matching firms and, proportionately, more than highly levered firms; (3) the decrease in net debt issuance for bank-dependent firms is not greater than for matching firms; (4) the average cumulative decrease in net equity issuance is more than twice the average decrease in net debt issuance from the start of the crisis through March 2009; and (5) bank-dependent firms hoard cash during the crisis compared with unlevered firms.

Errors in estimating share repurchases

Journal of Corporate Finance 2008 14(4), 460-474
We examine the accuracy of various estimates of firms' repurchases of common stock used in earlier studies, and find high error rates in the most commonly used estimators. We also find that the procedure used to estimate open market share repurchases can significantly impact results. The Compustat-based measure, which is the most accurate, deviates from the actual number of shares repurchased by more than 30% in about 16% of the cases. We conclude that many studies should be revisited now that the SEC mandates disclosure of precise information about share repurchases in Forms 10-Q and 10-K.

Measuring Abnormal Bond Performance

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(10), 4219-4258
We analyze the empirical power and specification of test statistics designed to detect abnormal bond returns in corporate event studies, using monthly and daily data. We find that test statistics based on frequently used methods of calculating abnormal monthly bond returns are biased. Most methods implemented in monthly data also lack power to detect abnormal returns. We also consider unique issues arising when using the newly available daily bond data, and formulate and test methods to calculate daily abnormal bond returns. Using daily bond data significantly increases the power of the tests, relative to the monthly data. Weighting individual trades by size while eliminating noninstitutional trades from the TRACE data also increases the power of the tests to detect abnormal performance, relative to using all trades or the last price of the day. Further, value-weighted portfolio-matching approaches are better specified and more powerful than equal-weighted approaches. Finally, we examine abnormal bond returns to acquirers around mergers and acquisitions to demonstrate how the abnormal return model and use of daily versus monthly data can affect inferences.