In a Kyle (1985) model, the sign of the correlation between a firm's debt and equity returns is the same as the sign of the cross-market Kyle's lambda. The sign is positive (negative) if private information concerns the mean (risk) of the firm's assets. We show empirically that information conveyed by order flows is primarily about asset means. The cross-market lambdas are quite large; consequently, the portions of bond and stock returns explained by order flows are highly correlated, even though the order flows themselves are virtually uncorrelated.

We apply methods designed to measure mutual fund skill to a cross section of funds that is unlikely to exhibit managerial portfolio selection skill: index funds. Surprisingly, these tests imply index fund skill exists, is persistent, and is in similar proportion as in active funds. We use the distribution of passive fund performance to gauge the incremental ability of active managers. Outperformance by top active funds is lower when benchmarked to the index fund distribution and disappears when we account for residual risk. Stochastic dominance tests suggest no risk-averse investor should choose a random active fund over a random index fund.

We identify the causal effects of short-selling bans on stock prices using regression discontinuity (RD). We exploit three threshold-based rules that determine a stock’s short-selling eligibility on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Short-selling bans have a large effect on short-selling volume at all thresholds. Despite this, bans do not affect stock prices. Stock returns, volatility, and crash risk are not different for banned versus unrestricted stocks when appropriate counterfactual stocks are used to measure a ban’s effects. Our findings suggest that short-selling bans are not as costly as previously argued, but are ineffective at reducing volatility or buttressing prices. Received September 13, 2017; editorial decision April 29, 2018 by Editor Jeffrey Pontiff.

ABSTRACT The majority of security analysts are identified as skilled when the cross‐section of analyst performance is modeled as a mixture of multiple skill distributions. Analysts exhibit heterogeneous skill—some are high‐type, and some are low‐type. On average, the recommendation revisions of both types exhibit positive abnormal returns. The heterogeneity stems from differential ability to produce new information; all analysts can profitably process news. Top analysts outperform because more of their recommendations are influential (i.e., associated with statistically significant returns) and both their influential and noninfluential recommendations are more informative. A majority of research firms are also identified as skilled.

We propose and estimate a model of endogenous informed trading that is a hybrid of the PIN and Kyle models. When an informed trader trades optimally, both returns and order flows are needed to identify information asymmetry parameters. Empirical relationships between parameter estimates and price impacts and between parameter estimates and stochastic volatility are consistent with theory. We illustrate how the estimates can be used to detect information events in the time series and to characterize the information content of prices in the cross-section. We also compare the estimates to those from other models on various criteria. Received April 5, 2017; editorial decision September 21, 2017 by Editor Itay Goldstein. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Recent work uses option prices to derive lower bounds for the risk premia of the market portfolio and individual stocks. We test the bounds conditionally. We cannot reject that they are valid, but we do reject that they are tight. Using the market bounds as forecasts appears unreasonable in many cases due to their high slackness. Adding past mean slackness is a potential improvement but is hampered by the brevity of the available data series. The correlation of the stock bounds with subsequent returns stems primarily from the time series rather than the cross section.

Mutual funds seek alpha, but coskewness is also an important performance attribute. Coskewness of fund returns is associated with market timing, liquidity management, and derivative use. Measures of active management associated with positive alphas are also associated with undesirable coskewness. When controlling for other characteristics, coskewness is positively associated with activity measures related to market timing and negatively associated with activity measures related to stock picking. In the cross-section of funds, the latter effect dominates, so funds generate undesirable coskewness in the pursuit of alpha. Money flows to funds with desirable coskewness. Received October 25, 2016; editorial decision January 29, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web Site next to the link to the final published paper online.