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Dynamic Dependence and Diversification in Corporate Credit

Review of Finance 2018 22(2), 521-560
We characterize dependence in corporate credit and equity returns for 215 firms using a new class of large-scale dynamic copula models. Copula dependence and especially tail dependence are highly variable and persistent, increase significantly in the financial crisis, and have remained high since. The most drastic increases in credit dependence occur in July/August of 2007 and in August of 2011 and the decrease in diversification potential caused by the increases in dependence and tail dependence is large. Credit default swap correlation dynamics are important determinants of credit spreads.

The Factor Structure in Equity Options

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(2), 595-637
Equity options display a strong factor structure. The first principal components of the equity volatility levels, skews, and term structures explain a substantial fraction of the cross-sectional variation. Furthermore, these principal components are highly correlated with the S&P 500 index option volatility, skew, and term structure, respectively. We develop an equity option valuation model that captures this factor structure. The model predicts that firms with higher market betas have higher implied volatilities, steeper moneyness slopes, and a term structure that covaries more with the market. The model provides a good fit, and the equity option data support the model’s cross-sectional implications. Received December 20, 2013; editorial decision April 15, 2017 by Editor Leonid Kogan.