NANCY STOKEY AND ROBERT LUCAS, JR., and Ed Prescott have produced an exceptionally useful, thorough, and timely introduction to stochastic economic dynamics. Dynamic optimization techniques developed in Operations Research, formulated initially by Richard Bellman (1957), have been used extensively in economics, particularly in macroeconomics, finance, and public finance. Economic theorists have extended dynamic programming theory in several valuable directions. Of particular note for this book is the concept of recursive equilibrium introduced in Edward Prescott and Rajnish Mehra (1980). While these techniques have been used extensively, there has been no broad, unified, and comprehensive presentation of the concepts, tools, and applications of recursive dynamic techniques that is written for economists and demands no more mathematics than a typical student is exposed to in a good graduate program. This book succeeds marvelously in filling this need. Furthermore, given the depth of development, it is also a valuable reference for researchers. Before describing the book's contents in detail, we should discuss what is distinctive and important about the recursive approach to dynamic economic problems. To do this, let's examine a simple problem and an alternative approach to its solution. The canonical problem for economic dynamics is the infinite horizon deterministic growth problem. Let k, be the capital stock at the beginning of period t, f(kt) a neoclassical production function expressing period t production as a function of kt, ct consumption in period t chosen at the end of the period, u(c) a concave utility function, and I the discount factor. Then a social planner for this infinitely lived economy will solve the problem

Fragile by Design by Charles W. Calomiris and Stephen H. Haber introduces a framework for understanding financial crises and credit abundance with politics at its center. Using the historical experiences of five nations to illustrate, the authors propose that democracies such as the United States and Canada can have stable banks and ample credit so long as populist forces do not dominate the policy agenda, and that strong autocratic states such as Mexico can also achieve stability at the cost of restricting credit. Weak autocracies, such as Brazil over much of its history, often require inflationary finance and suffer from the banking fragility that comes with it. The authors identify populist ideologies and related policy decisions (such as unit banking, deposit insurance, and the Community Reinvestment Act) as underlying causes of banking instability in the United States as typified by the recent subprime crisis. Canada, in contrast, by holding populist forces in check through calculated political choices, remains crisis-free. (JEL D72, E44, G01, G21, N20, O16, O17)

Hence, even if the partial equilibrium analyst knows full well that the actual situation is not really a competitive one, he probably will still make a first try using the competitive model with good old-fashioned profit maximization. And if the results appear too odd, appropriate qualifications may still be able to take care of them more simply than if he had started with a cumbersome managerial model. (In saying this, I am showing my bias.) [18, p. 30]

ECONOMICS, we all recite, deals with allocation of limited resources towards satisfaction of unlimited wants. Resources are typically identified as land, labor, and capital plus a technology that determines their transformation into consumer goods. Disparity between the available goods and services and the desired gives rise to scarcity and the question of what, how, and for whom to produce. The focus then shifts to description and evaluation of alternative resource allocation mechanisms for making the choices. The Pareto criterion, by which an allocation of resources is deemed efficient if any reallocation improving the position of some individual worsens the position of others, is a commonly employed gauge of a mechanism's performance. In the absence of externalities, increasing returns to scale, and uncertainty, a perfectly competitive market system yields a Pareto optimal allocation of resources; this underlies the view that individual self-interest is compatible with society's interest. The further conclusion that Pareto optimality may not be achieved via the market system in the presence of monopoly elements provides an economic rationale for antitrust laws. The objective of a resource allocation mechanism appears to be, according to the analysis described above, to make the best of available resources. The alternative objective of relaxing constraints through expanding the resource base or developing new technology seems to be beyond its scope. Thus, until rather recently, technical advance had been regarded, in the mainstream of economic theory, as unmotivated by the quest for profits and substantially unaffected by resource allocation. Instead, as J. Schmookler observed, technology had been viewed as a parameter like the weather, affecting the outcome of resource allocations but itself unaffected by them [84, 1965]. Evidence that technological progress has significantly contributed to growth in productivity, together with a substantial increase in research and development activity, largely financed by government and carried out by industry (see F. Machlup [51, 1962]), may have spurred reconsideration of this view. Once technical advance is regarded as an economic variable, it is natural to in-

This paper provides an overview of visual analytics—the science of analytical reasoning enhanced by interactive visualizations tightly coupled with data analytics software—and discusses its potential benefits in monitoring systemic financial stability. The core strength of visual analytics is to combine visualization's high-bandwidth information channel to the human analyst with the flexibility and power of rapid-iteration analytics. This combination is especially valuable in the context of macroprudential supervision, which is increasingly dominated by large volumes of dynamic and heterogeneous data. Our contribution is to describe and categorize the analytical challenges faced by macroprudential supervisors, and to indicate where and how visual analytics can increase supervisors’ comprehension of the data stream, helping to transform it into actionable knowledge to support informed decision- and policy-making. The paper concludes with suggestions for a research agenda.

Abstract This study investigates whether an individual's status as a current or a prospective investor affects the investor's susceptibility to earnings fixation and proposes a mechanism to reduce earnings fixation. Our experimental results suggest that current investors are more susceptible to earnings fixation than prospective investors, and that current investors can reduce earnings fixation by explicitly forecasting future earnings as part of their evaluation process. We provide theory‐consistent evidence that current investors' prevention focus makes them elevate the importance of summary earnings in their evaluation of a company. However, after forecasting future earnings, current investors view summary earnings as only one of several similarly important evaluation inputs rather than as one substantially more important input (relative to its components). Our study contributes to research on earnings fixation and investor status. We also contribute to practice by documenting the moderating effect of investor status on earnings fixation and by identifying a simple mechanism that current investors can use to reduce their susceptibility to earnings fixation.

The government has attempted to ameliorate gaps in college access and success by providing need-based grants, but little evidence exists on the long-term impacts of such aid. We examine the effects of the Florida Student Access Grant (FSAG) using a regression-discontinuity strategy and exploiting the cut-off used to determine eligibility. We find that grant eligibility had a positive effect on attendance, particularly at public 4-year institutions. Moreover, FSAG increased the rate of credit accumulation and bachelor’s degree completion within 6 years, with a 22% increase for students near the eligibility cut-off. The effects are robust to sensitivity analysis.