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Too Good to Be True: Look-Ahead Bias in Empirical Options Research

Review of Financial Studies 2026
Numerous trading strategies examined in options research exhibit remarkably high mean returns and Sharpe ratios. We show some of these seemingly “good deals” are due to look-ahead biases. These biases stem from using information unavailable at the portfolio formation time to filter out observations suspected of being noisy or erroneous. Our results suggest that elevated Sharpe ratios may serve as potential indicators of such look-ahead biases. Furthermore, deviating from previous literature findings, we show that illiquidity is not strongly priced in stock options and that only a small set of stock characteristics are in fact associated with option expected returns. (JEL G12, G14, G17)

The impact of bancassurance on efficiency and profitability of banks: Evidence from the banking industry in Taiwan

Journal of Banking & Finance 2017 80, 1-13
We set out in this study to investigate whether bancassurance business leads to improvements in the efficiency and profitability of banks. We examine the positive impacts on the system using actual data provided by a unique database on banks engaging in bancassurance business in Taiwan between 2004 and 2012. Our results reveal that banks with greater involvement in bancassurance business generally tend to experience improvements in their efficiency, and thus also accrue greater profits. Our empirical results provide evidence to support that bancassurance business offers substantial benefits for banks, ultimately leading to an increase in shareholder value. Finally, our results also reveal that the adoption of a diversification strategy in bancassurance can impact bank performance.

Very Noisy Option Prices and Inference Regarding the Volatility Risk Premium

Journal of Finance 2024 79(5), 3581-3621
ABSTRACT The stylized fact that volatility is not priced in individual equity options does not withstand scrutiny. First, we show that the average return of heavily traded deep out‐of‐the‐money call options on stocks is −116 basis points per day. Second, Fama‐MacBeth estimates of the volatility risk premium in stock options are similar to those in S&P 500 Index call options. Third, the mean return of heavily traded delta‐hedged at‐the‐money calls (puts) is −23 (−30) basis points. Fourth, the variance risk premium in stock options is negative. Our analysis highlights the importance of microstructure biases and robustness in empirical work with options.