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Blockchain Disruption and Smart Contracts

Review of Financial Studies 2019 32(5), 1754-1797
Blockchain technology provides decentralized consensus and potentially enlarges the contracting space through smart contracts. Meanwhile, generating decentralized consensus entails distributing information that necessarily alters the informational environment. We analyze how decentralization relates to consensus quality and how the quintessential features of blockchain remold the landscape of competition. Smart contracts can mitigate informational asymmetry and improve welfare and consumer surplus through enhanced entry and competition, yet distributing information during consensus generation may encourage greater collusion. In general, blockchains sustain market equilibria with a wider range of economic outcomes. We further discuss the implications for antitrust policies targeted at blockchain applications.Received May 31, 2017; editorial decision May 29, 2018 by Editor Itay Goldstein.

Credit Allocation Under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China

Review of Financial Studies 2019 32(9), 3412-3460
We study credit allocation across firms and its real effects during China’s economic stimulus plan of 2009–2010. We match confidential loan-level data from the nineteen largest Chinese banks with firm-level data on manufacturing firms. We document that the stimulus-driven credit expansion disproportionately favored state-owned firms and firms with a lower average product of capital, reversing the process of capital reallocation toward private firms that characterized China’s high growth before 2008. We argue that implicit government guarantees for state-connected firms become more prominent during recessions and can explain this reversal. Received August 23, 2017; editorial decision November 15, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan.