Journal Article Notes on Jorgenson's Model Get access M. McManus M. McManus Birmingham Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 2, June 1963, Pages 141–147, https://doi.org/10.2307/2295812 Published: 01 June 1963
Journal Article Factor Substitution in the Two-Sector Growth Model Get access Emanuel M. Drandakis Emanuel M. Drandakis Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 3, October 1963, Pages 217–228, https://doi.org/10.2307/2296322 Published: 01 October 1963
Journal Article The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Reply Get access J. M. Culbertson J. M. Culbertson University of Wisconsin Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 77, Issue 4, November 1963, Pages 691–696, https://doi.org/10.2307/1879459 Published: 01 November 1963
Journal Article Innovation in the Machine Tool Industry: Comment Get access Benjamin M. Perles Benjamin M. Perles Bentley College of Accounting and Finance Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 77, Issue 3, August 1963, Pages 511–513, https://doi.org/10.2307/1879577 Published: 01 August 1963
The paper extends the results of the Solow-Samuelson article [12], reinterpreting their balanced growth model in terms of prices rather than output and weakening their monotonicity assumption to consider cases in which the production system is decomposable, completely decomposable, or approximates one of these. It is shown, among other things, that results similar to those obtained by Simon and Ando [11] and Ando and Fisher [1] for linear systems hold for the asymptotic behavior of this sort of nonlinear system of difference equations.
The Review of Economics and Statistics196345(3), 245
T HE migration of Puerto Ricans to the continental United States (primarily to the New York City region) represents a most striking and important example of population redistribution. The purpose of this study is not only to chronicle some of its important aspects, but also to make use of a fruitful method for relating migration to economic incentives. In it we treat population from the point of view of its function as labor supply; consequently this is a study of net migration. The movement of population from Puerto Rico to the United States mainland provides us with an unusual natural experiment something which is very hard to find in the social sciences in that both the source and receiving areas of movement are readily definable, and information is available over a series of years. Perhaps it is crude to think of the United States and Puerto Rico as points which are receiving and source areas of migration, respectively, but a study of the geographical distribution of the origins and destinations of migrants must follow this preliminary analysis. Of course, since Puerto Rico is politically a part of the United States there are no legal barriers to hinder the flow of population. The theoretical framework which forms the basis of this examination is straightforward. It assumes that migrants change homes in order to improve their lifetime earning prospects; against the expected gains from moving must be balanced various pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs. Examples of the pecuniary costs readily come to mind. Among the most important are transportation and the loss of earnings to migrants while they are travelling and initially unemployed in the receiving country. Nonpecuniary costs involve, among other things, the psychological discomforts of changing social environments. We should expect that changes in the difference between the gain and cost of moving will affect the quantity of migration, and, over the length of time considered in this paper, that the pecuniary factors have fluctuated more widely and systematically than the non-pecuniary. Therefore, a discussion of the migration primarily in economic terms should prove fruitful. The basic model we have used is inspired by a simple empirical observation: in the short run, relative hourly wage rates in the source and receiving areas appear to have but little effect on population flows, but employment rates or job availabilities have an important effect. Consider a potential migrant.' He will probably derive some notion of the gain to him from moving by observing the interregional pattern of wage rates over some length of time, and he is unlikely to be influenced greatly by day-to-day, or even year-to-year fluctuations in these rates. But having decided that the longrun gains outweigh the long-run costs, the potential migrant must decide exactly when to quit his old job and board plane or boat. This will probably depend largely on the difficulty of financing the trip. It is not surprising that, especially when funds for moving are scarce, fluctuations in the short-run cost of migration will be closely associated with fluctuations in migration, itself.2
The Review of Economics and Statistics196345(1), 98
The history of air traffic forecasting presents some interesting contrasts in methods and results, as well as some useful insights into the cause and effect of trends. The underlying philosophies of past forecasts, along with their special assumptions, showed great variety. As might have been expected, the numerical results were equally diverse, and many of them proved to be remarkably inaccurate. In the lower forecasts, a share of the market approach was used. It was assumed that air traffic would grow as an integral part of the whole common carrier market: this had been stable for 20 years, and except under the abnormal conditions of World War II, no growth was registered. An inherently stable common carrier was therefore a basic underlying premise and within this static the various modes were simply to exchange their relative places. Air travel, it was predicted, would gradually displace rail travel as the dominant form. The measure of such traffic is commonly the revenue passenger mile. The higher forecasts assumed that air traffic would be independent of the total common carrier curve and that, with certain other assumptions, it would follow or exceed recent trends. Professor Wright's I957 forecast forecasted a jet impact which would accelerate an already steep trend. In another case, lower fares, predicated on the higher productivity, were assumed. Instead, fares were raised. The purpose of this study is to develop a better understanding of what has actually happened and to isolate and analyze the underlying historical patterns. The first pattern examined was the tendency of the growth curve to flatten out in I937, I942, I947-I948, and I958. See Chart I. These pauses could not be explained by economic recession. I937 and 1947-8 were not, in the context of the times, recession periods. The leveling off in I942 was caused by war conditions, rather than depressions. Yet, during actual recession years (1938, I949, I953-54), air traffic continued its dynamic growth. I958 is one period in which there was both a recession and a pause in air traffic growth . . . hardly a valid basis for establishing a cause and effect relationship.