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Investor flows, performance, and fragility of U.S. municipal bond mutual funds

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 72, 101267
We examine the determinants of investor flows into, and the potential market fragility imposed by, U.S. municipal bond mutual funds. We find that funds have a linear flow-performance relationship that is consistent with effective liquidity management strategies. Funds use liquid holdings to partially offset net redemptions, but trade municipal bonds in proportion to flows. Funds increase their liquid holdings after flow volatility increases. The fact that funds use a vertical slice approach as a primary strategy is not surprising because they maintain small amounts of liquid securities. Our evidence is consistent with investors not being concerned with municipal bond mutual funds promoting run-risk.

Order Preferencing and Market Quality on U.S. Equity Exchanges

Review of Financial Studies 2003 16(2), 385-415
We present a detailed view of market quality in the presence of preferencing arrangements. A unique dataset provides the opportunity to measure trading costs of marketable orders and fill rates and ex post costs of limit orders across trading venues. For market orders, we find the primary exchange provides the lowest execution costs. However, the preferencing exchanges are no worse than, and in most cases better than, the nonpreferencing regional exchanges. For limit orders, the regionals execute limit orders more frequently than the primary market and with an ex post execution cost that is not very different from the primary market.

Implications of a Reduction in Tick Size on Short-Sell Order Execution

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2002 11(1), 37-60
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is committed to having exchanges fully implement decimal pricing by April 9, 2001, and is also considering revising the Uptick Rule. We consider the likely impact of the pending smaller tick size associated with decimalization on the efficacy of this rule by examining the execution quality of NYSE short-sell orders immediately before and after the tick size was reduced from 1/8th to 1/16th in 1997. We conclude that, in general, short market orders will receive better execution after decimalization, but at-the-quote limit orders will receive worse execution, and suggest revisions to the Rule. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G18, K22.

Short Selling on the New York Stock Exchange and the Effects of the Uptick Rule

Journal of Financial Intermediation 1999 8(1-2), 90-116
We examine the impact of Rule 10a-1, the Uptick Rule, on short-sell orders sent to the NYSE. The principal finding is that the execution quality of short-sell orders is adversely affected by the Uptick Rule, even when stocks are trading in advancing markets. This is inconsistent with one of the three stated objectives of the rule, i.e., to allow relatively unrestricted short selling when a firm's stock is advancing so that the rule does not affect price discovery during such times. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G18, K22

The puzzling behavior of short sellers around earnings announcements

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2014 23(2), 255-278
We examine the performance of ‘predictive’ and ‘reactive’ short sellers who take relatively large short positions immediately before and after quarterly earnings announcements, respectively. While both types short into advancing markets, it is surprising for reactive shorts since their trades are in stocks that just announced unexpected good news and thus, according to the post-earnings announcement drift anomaly, will subsequently have abnormally high cumulative returns. Nevertheless, we find that for both types of short sellers: (1) subsequent cumulative returns are significantly negatively related to the amount of abnormal short selling, suggesting they are informed, and (2) relative to non-earnings dates, the subsequent returns around earnings announcements are significantly more negative, indicating they appear to be adept at exploiting earnings announcements. Surprisingly, we find that the subsequent returns of reactive short sellers are significantly greater than those of predictive short sellers except for S&P 500 stocks, perhaps due to their greater analyst following. Importantly, we are left with two puzzles. First, reactive shorts would have significantly improved their performance had they based their trades on the size of standardized unexpected earnings (‘SUE’). Second, predictive shorts of Micro stocks would have significantly improved their performance had they simply waited until earnings were announced and then based their trades on SUE.

Margin regulation and market quality: a microstructure analysis

Journal of Corporate Finance 2004 10(4), 549-574
We find that trading volume increases and market liquidity remains unchanged, while the adverse selection and order-processing cost components of the spread increase and decrease, respectively, after margin levels decline when stocks become margin-eligible. This evidence indicates that the information content of trades has increased, thereby improving market quality. However, no changes were detected after the 1997 regulatory reforms. These results have implications across a broad swath of corporate finance dimensions, including the (1) cost of capital, (2) public vs. private financing decision, (3) form of managerial compensation, (4) type of ownership structure, and (5) degree of shareholder monitoring.