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The Treasury Yield Curve as a Cointegrated System

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1992 27(3), 449
This paper examines the temporal relationship between interest rates on Treasury securities ranging in maturity from three months to 30 years. We find strong empirical support that the seven Treasury rates selected are cointegrated, a conclusion that is insensitive to the normalization chosen. In particular, the hypothesis of noncointegration is rejeeted decisively regardless of the rate selected as the dependent variable in the cointegrating equation. To determine whether this information can be used to improve forecasts of Treasury rates, the seven rates are forecasted with a corresponding erroreorrection model that is shown to outperform an augmented VAR model that ignores the cointegration of the rates. The results are consistent with the belief that arbitrage limits the extent to which rates on different maturities of a given security diverge. In addition, the results confirm the appropriateness of imposing a common stochastic process for interest rates in equilibrium models of the term structure.

Synergistic gains from corporate acquisitions and their division between the stockholders of target and acquiring firms

Journal of Financial Economics 1988 21(1), 3-40
This paper documents that a successful tender offer increases the combined value of the target and acquiring firms by an average of 7.4%. We also provide a theoretical analysis of the process of competition for control of the target and empirical evidence that competition among bidding firms increases the returns to targets and decreases the returns to acquirers, that the supply of target shares is positively sloped, and that changes in the legal/institutional environment of tender offers have had no impact on the total (percentage) synergistic gains created but have significantly affected their division between the stockholders of the target and acquiring firms.

Activist arbitrage: A study of open-ending attempts of closed-end funds

Journal of Financial Economics 2010 95(1), 1-19
This paper documents frequent attempts by activist arbitrageurs to open-end discounted closed-end funds, particularly after the 1992 proxy reform which reduced the costs of communication among shareholders. Open-ending attempts have a substantial effect on discounts, reducing them, on average, to half of their original level. The size of the discount is a major determinant of whether a fund gets attacked. Other important factors include the costs of communication among shareholders and the governance structure of the targeted fund. Our study contributes to the understanding of the actions undertaken by arbitrageurs in financial markets beyond just pure trading.

Determinants of Thrift Institution Resolution Costs

Journal of Finance 1990 45(3), 731
This paper provides a detailed examination of the cost imposed by thrift institutions resolved during the period 1980–1988. A simple model is presented to explain the cost of resolution. This model is tested empirically with a comprehensive data set that permits us to avoid some of the econometric problems present in earlier studies. The empirical evidence suggests that the model that explains resolution costs in the late 1980s is significantly different from the model for either the middle or early 1980s. This evidence is consistent with the changing nature of the thrift crisis and changes in the regulator's closure rule. Our econometric evidence, moreover, is consistent with the hypothesis that, for troubled institutions, tangible net worth systematically understates market-value net worth. In addition, the importance of including time effects as well as institution effects as determinants of the cost of resolution is revealed.

Determinants of Thrift Institution Resolution Costs

Journal of Finance 1990 45(3), 731-754
This paper provides a detailed examination of the cost imposed by thrift institutions resolved during the period 1980–1988. A simple model is presented to explain the cost of resolution. This model is tested empirically with a comprehensive data set that permits us to avoid some of the econometric problems present in earlier studies. The empirical evidence suggests that the model that explains resolution costs in the late 1980s is significantly different from the model for either the middle or early 1980s. This evidence is consistent with the changing nature of the thrift crisis and changes in the regulator's closure rule. Our econometric evidence, moreover, is consistent with the hypothesis that, for troubled institutions, tangible net worth systematically understates market‐value net worth. In addition, the importance of including time effects as well as institution effects as determinants of the cost of resolution is revealed.