To make high-quality research more accessible and easier to explore.

Fields:
4 results ✕ Clear filters

Feedback loops in industry trade networks and the term structure of momentum profits

Journal of Financial Economics 2021 141(3), 1171-1187
Industries are economically linked through customer-supplier trade flows. We show that industry shocks propagating along this intersectoral trade network can feed back to the originating industry, causing an “echo”–intermediate-term autocorrelation in returns. Adopting techniques from graph theory, we find that the strength of the trade network feedback is a crucial determinant of the echo effect in industry returns. Returns of the echo strategy implemented within high-feedback strength industries reach 1% monthly. Consistent with limited-information models, the relation between feedback strength and echo profits is strongest in industries with information diffusion frictions, such as low analyst coverage, along the feedback loop. Overall, our results identify intersectoral trade networks as important conduits of industry shocks and provide the first explanation for the echo effect.

Horizon Effects in Average Returns: The Role of Slow Information Diffusion

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(8), 2241-2281
We characterize linkages between average returns calculated at different horizons. Theoretically, when stocks incorporate information slowly, average short-horizon returns are downward biased. Buy-and-hold strategies can amplify the effect. In contrast, existing theories analyze price noises that are independent of fundamentals, and buy-and-hold portfolio returns are unaffected. We document horizon effects as large as 10% annualized in daily and monthly style portfolios and international indices. Slow reaction to market information, identified by gradually declining lagged betas, is an important cause. These findings have natural consequences for performance evaluation.

Dissecting Conglomerate Valuations

Journal of Finance 2022 77(2), 1097-1131
We develop a new method to estimate Tobin's Qs of conglomerate divisions without relying on standalone firms. Divisional Qs differ considerably from those of standalone firms across industries, over time, and in their sensitivity to economic shocks. The differences are explained by intraconglomerate covariance structures and access to internal capital markets that mitigate external financing frictions. Consequently, the Qs capture variation in the allocation of assets in the economy: within firms through internal capital markets and across focused and diversified firms through diversifying acquisitions. Overall, our method provides opportunities to study the economic mechanisms that explain corporate diversification.

The Best of Both Worlds: Accessing Emerging Economies via Developed Markets

Journal of Finance 2019 74(5), 2579-2617
A growing body of evidence suggests that the benefits of international diversification via developed markets have declined dramatically. While emerging markets still offer diversification opportunities, their public equity indices capture only a fraction of emerging countries' economic activity. We propose a diversification approach that exploits the global connectedness of developed countries to gain exposure to emerging countries' overall economies rather than their shallow equity markets. In doing so, we demonstrate that developed markets still offer substantial diversification benefits beyond those available through equity indices. Our results suggest that relying on equity indices to assess diversification benefits understates diversification gains.