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An empirical analysis of changes in credit rating properties: Timeliness, accuracy and volatility

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2009 47(1-2), 108-130
In recent years, credit rating agencies have faced increased regulatory pressure and investor criticism for their ratings’ lack of timeliness. This study investigates whether and how rating agencies respond to such pressure and criticism. We find that the rating agencies not only improve rating timeliness, but also increase rating accuracy and reduce rating volatility. Our findings support the criticism that, in the past, rating agencies did not avail themselves of the best rating methodologies/efforts possible. When their market power is threatened by the possibility of increased regulatory intervention and/or reputation concerns, rating agencies respond by improving their credit analysis.

Does Investment-Related Pressure Lead to Misreporting? An Analysis of Reporting Following M&A Transactions

The Accounting Review 2012 87(3), 839-865
This study examines whether managers alter their financial reporting decisions in the face of investment-related pressure. We define investment-related pressure as the increased pressure managers feel to retain their job following an M&A poorly received by the market. We hypothesize that managers attempt to assuage pressure by delivering strong performance post-merger, creating incentives for misreporting. Our findings indicate that acquirers with more negative M&A announcement returns are more likely to misstate financial statements in the post-investment period and the issuance of misstated financials mitigates this pressure, at least in the near term. Our study contributes to the literature on the relation between corporate investing and financial reporting by showing how investment-related pressure leads to misreporting, even in a setting where the costs (e.g., greater probability of detection) are high. Our study also has implications for the large body of research that evaluates various consequences of M&As using post-merger performance. Specifically, researchers should be careful to distinguish real from misstated financial performance in the post-investment period. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources indicated in the text.

The Impact of SEC Disclosure Monitoring on the Uncertainty of Fair Value Estimates

The Accounting Review 2016 91(2), 349-375
We investigate the role played by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in monitoring fair value disclosures in regulatory filings. Specifically, we assess whether SEC action via the issuance of fair value comment letters to registrants is followed by reductions in uncertainty about the firms' fair value estimates. We hypothesize that registrants that receive a comment letter focusing on their fair value disclosure policies experience reductions in investor uncertainty regarding their fair value estimates in the post-letter period, compared to the pre-letter period. Supporting this prediction, we find that for the periods after the fair value comment letters, the associations between Level 2 and 3 fair value assets and our measures of uncertainty are significantly reduced. These findings are robust to a series of tests designed to ensure that we do not simply capture general changes in market uncertainty levels for firms investing in these types of assets. Our study contributes to the further understanding of market participants' perception of fair value disclosures by investigating the role of SEC enforcement. This finding is important given recent criticisms of fair value reporting emanating from the highest levels of government and industry. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources identified in the paper.

Asset Securitization, Securitization Recourse, and Information Uncertainty

The Accounting Review 2011 86(2), 541-568
In this study, we examine some of the consequences of asset securitization. Specifically, using a sample of bank holding companies, we investigate whether the difficulty in assessing the true extent of risk transfer, between securitizing banks and investors in asset-backed securities, affects bank information uncertainty. We find that when market participants have a greater difficulty in estimating risk transfer, banks face greater information uncertainty (i.e., larger bid-ask spreads and analyst forecast dispersion). In addition, we find that this effect is mitigated for banks that operate in a higher quality information environment. We also find that banks that securitize financial assets have higher spreads and analyst forecast dispersion as compared to non-securitizing banks.

The Disciplining Effect of Credit Default Swap Trading on the Quality of Credit Rating Agencies†

Contemporary Accounting Research 2022 39(2), 1297-1333
This study examines whether credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation can serve as a disciplining mechanism for leading credit rating agencies. Specifically, we investigate whether rating agencies improve their rating quality when an alternative source of credit risk information from CDS threatens to expose inaccuracies in their ratings. Understanding potential drivers of credit rating quality is important given the prominence of credit rating agencies as debt market gatekeepers and perceptions that the agencies have underperformed in providing high‐quality credit risk assessments in recent decades. We hypothesize and find that the initiation of CDS trading improves the accuracy of issuer‐paid credit ratings. This evidence is robust to a number of sensitivity tests including alternative ways of measuring rating accuracy and correction for selection bias. We also find that the timeliness of credit ratings, watch list, and outlook placements improves post‐initiation—particularly for negative shocks to credit risk. This study contributes to the credit rating literature by documenting that CDS trading can help discipline rating agencies. It also contributes to the literature studying the implications of the CDS market.

The Effectiveness of Credit Rating Agency Monitoring: Evidence from Asset Securitizations

The Accounting Review 2015 90(5), 1779-1810
This study investigates how differences between the rating agencies' initial (at the date of debt issuance) and subsequent (post-issuance) monitoring incentives affect securitizing banks' rating accuracy. We hypothesize that the agencies have stronger incentives to monitor issuers when providing initial versus post-issuance ratings. We document that initial ratings are positively associated with off-balance sheet securitized assets and incrementally associated with on-balance sheet retained securities. However, subsequent ratings fail to capture current exposure to off-balance sheet securitizations. We also find that subsequent ratings reflect default risk less accurately than initial ratings. The subsequent ratings' responsiveness to default risk is worse when a bank has more off-balance sheet securitized assets. Collectively, our findings are consistent with lax post-issuance monitoring. They raise questions about the effectiveness of using ratings as an ongoing contracting mechanism and suggest that conclusions about rating accuracy could differ depending on whether researchers focus on initial versus post-issuance ratings.

When Do Differences in Credit Rating Methodologies Matter? Evidence from High Information Uncertainty Borrowers

The Accounting Review 2017 92(4), 53-79
This study investigates whether and when differences in the credit rating agencies' methodologies result in differences in rating properties. In particular, this study focuses on differences in information processing constraints between a rating agency that utilizes qualitative analysis and direct access to borrowers' management in its rating process (Standard & Poor's) compared to one that does not (Egan Jones Ratings Company) and how these differences affect rating quality. We find that as information uncertainty about borrowers increases, Egan Jones's rating accuracy, informativeness, and timeliness decrease relative to Standard & Poor's. Our findings suggest that Egan Jones's more restricted rating methodology can lead to limitations in information processing and, thus, reductions in Egan Jones's rating quality advantage for borrowers with greater information uncertainty.