This paper examines how agents' response to macroeconomic uncertainty affects firms' revenues, expenses, and profitability in a global sample of firms spanning 1997 to 2018. Consistent with consumers reducing purchases and managers cutting costs, I find that increases in macroeconomic uncertainty lead to both lower revenues and lower expenses. The net short-term effect on profitability is positive as the reduction in expenses exceeds the fall in revenues. This favorable profitability effect is attenuated for firms whose institutional environment restrains cost-cutting, holds for both the cash and accrual components of earnings, and is robust to instrumental variable estimation employing exogenous variation in macroeconomic uncertainty arising from natural disasters, political unrest, revolutions, and terrorist attacks.

We examine whether the quality of firms' internal information systems influences the relation between inflation shocks and corporate investment, as posited by imperfect information models. Inconsistent with RBC models’ prediction that nominal variables (e.g., inflation) do not affect real variables (e.g., corporate investment) but consistent with the presence of information frictions, we first document a positive relation between inflation shocks and firm-level investment. Next, we show that higher internal information system quality, measured through responses to the World Management Survey, mitigates the positive relation between inflation shocks and firm-level investment. This result suggests that internal information quality serves as a channel through which aggregate-level nominal variables affect firm-level real variables. We then document that firms with higher internal information system quality make relatively more efficient investment decisions following inflation shocks. Our inferences are robust to using the 8th EU Company Law Directive as a shock to internal information system quality and to several additional tests.

Initial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) announcements are important economic signals that convey information on the state of the economy but contain substantial estimation error. We investigate how GDP estimation errors affect firms' real decisions and profitability. We find that GDP estimation errors are positively associated with one-quarter-ahead changes in firms’ capital investments, production, inventory, and profitability. However, we observe long-run profitability reversals, which is consistent with initial over (under) production eventually being met with declines (increases) in future profitability. Furthermore, managerial responses to the estimation errors mimic the response to the true component of the GDP signal, suggesting that managers do not filter estimation errors and overreact to both GDP signal components. Our firm-level findings translate to the macroeconomic level, where we find that a long-run reversal follows a positive short-run aggregate investment response to GDP signal components.