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Past financial crises, the current financial turmoil, and the need for a new macrofinancial stability framework

Journal of Financial Stability 2008 4(4), 307-312
While it is tempting to focus on new financial innovations in helping explain recent financial turmoil, more traditional causes should not be overlooked. As on many previous occasions, very rapid credit growth led to major increases in asset prices, which in turn encouraged consumption and investment decisions which could yet prove unsustainable. The natural “procyclicality” of the financial system could perhaps be contained through the introduction of a “new macrofinancial stability framework”. There are many practical impediments to realising such a suggestion, but there are also grounds for belief that these impediments could be removed.

Banking with nominal deposits and inside money

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2008 17(4), 562-584
Bank runs in the literature take the form of withdrawals of demand deposits payable in real goods, which deplete a fixed reserve of goods in the banking system. That framework describes traditional bank runs based on currency withdrawals as occurred historically in the US and more recently in developing countries. However, in a modern banking system, large withdrawals typically take the form of electronic payments of inside money, with no analog of a depletion of a scarce reserve from the banking system. In a new framework of nominal demand deposits repayable in inside money, pure liquidity-driven bank runs do not occur. If there were excessive early withdrawals, nominal deposits would hedge the bank and flexible monetary prices in the goods market would limit real consumption. The maturity mismatch of short term liabilities and long term assets is not sufficient for multiple equilibria bank runs without other frictions. A key role of the bank is to ensure optimal real liquidity, which allows markets to optimally distribute consumption goods through the price mechanism.

Is accruals quality a priced risk factor?

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2008 46(1), 2-22
In a recent and influential empirical paper, Francis, LaFond, Olsson, and Schipper (FLOS) [2005. The market pricing of accruals quality. Journal of Accounting and Economics 39, 295–327] conclude that accruals quality (AQ) is a priced risk factor. We explain that FLOS’ regressions examining a contemporaneous relation between excess returns and factor returns do not test the hypothesis that AQ is a priced risk factor. We conduct appropriate asset-pricing tests for determining whether a potential risk factor explains expected returns, and find no evidence that AQ is a priced risk factor.

The timing of financing decisions: An examination of the correlation in financing waves☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 90(1), 59-83
Why do corporate financing events occur in waves? We challenge recent evidence of the importance of valuation cycles in driving financing waves by documenting that the aggregate pattern of stock repurchases mirrors that of equity issuance and mergers, despite repurchases involving an opposite transaction. We then show that trends in financing decisions result from differing responses to the same economic stimulus: growth in GDP. Specifically, economic expansion reduces the cost of equity relative to the cost of debt, inducing firms to issue equity, and increases cash flow and also causes varying degrees of uncertainty, increasing stock repurchases. We document similar trends and provide similar motivation for merger waves.

Using tax return data to simulate corporate marginal tax rates

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2008 46(2-3), 366-388
We document that simulated corporate marginal tax rates based on financial statement data [Shevlin, T., 1990. Estimating corporate marginal tax rates with asymmetric tax treatment of gains and losses. The Journal of the American Taxation Association 11, 51–67; Graham, J., 1996a. Debt and the marginal tax rate. Journal of Financial Economics 41, 41–73] are highly correlated with simulated rates based on corporate tax return data. We provide algorithms that can be used to estimate the book or tax simulated rates when they are not available. We find that the simulated book marginal tax rate does a better job of explaining financial statement debt ratios than does the analogous tax return variable and discuss how the book-simulated rate is likely to be an appropriate measure in settings with global, long-term considerations.

Ethnic Scientific Communities and International Technology Diffusion

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2008 90(3), 518-537
This study explores the role of U.S. ethnic scientific and entrepreneurial communities for international technology transfer to their home countries. U.S. ethnic researchers are quantified through an ethnic-name database and individual patent records. International patent citations confirm knowledge diffuses through ethnic networks, and manufacturing output in foreign countries increases with an elasticity of 0.1–0.3 to stronger scientific integration with the U.S. frontier. Specifications exploiting exogenous changes in U.S. immigration quotas address reverse-causality concerns. Exercises further differentiate responses by development stages in home countries. Ethnic technology transfers are particularly strong in high-tech industries and among Chinese economies.

The capital structure of multinational corporations: Canadian versus U.S. evidence

Journal of Corporate Finance 2008 14(5), 706-720
Contrary to the U.S. evidence, we show that Canadian multinational corporations (MNCs) display higher leverage than domestic firms (DCs). This higher leverage is due to lower agency costs of debt associated with MNCs' U.S. operations. We also find that the Canadian firms with international bond market access have higher leverage than firms without such access. Comparison with a U.S. matched sample shows that the sensitivity of leverage to firm-specific factors differs between the two countries, especially for the MNCs samples. Our evidence indicates that capital structures of MNCs are a complex interaction of both home and host country factors and differences in leverage determinants across countries.

Are corporate governance and bank monitoring substitutes: Evidence from the perceived value of bank loans

Journal of Corporate Finance 2008 14(4), 475-483
We extend the literature regarding the importance of corporate governance and bank monitoring by examining the association between loan announcement wealth effects and the corporate governance characteristics of the borrowers. Using a sample of over 800 commercial loan announcements over a period of more than 20 years we find that loan announcements are more likely to have positive wealth effects for firms with weak internal corporate governance. However, we also find that this relation between perceived bank monitoring and board independence and incentive-based pay exists only for firms with weak external governance, specifically the market for corporate control.

Second time lucky? Withdrawn IPOs that return to the market

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 87(3), 610-635
We investigate issuers withdrawing an IPO (after security regulation filings) that return later for a successful offering. Venture capital backing and reputation of the lead underwriter are key factors in predicting successful return. The possibility of returning has a significant impact on the decision to withdraw and the pricing of offerings that succeed. Our sample of returning IPOs also provides a unique setting to investigate underwriter switching after a withdrawal but before a successful IPO. We find that switching occurs in response to poor bank performance and when switching firms “graduate” to banks that have high industry market shares.