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Effect of personal taxes on managers’ decisions to sell their stock
We examine the effect of personal taxes on CEOs’ decisions to sell their equity, controlling for diversification, managerial overconfidence, and other determinants. While CEOs frequently sell large amounts of their unrestricted firm equity, the tax burden associated with the sale significantly deters them from selling equity even after controlling for other determinants like diversification. We also find that both taxable institutional investors and CEOs respond to taxes in their selling of equity, although CEOs appear to be less tax-sensitive. Our findings underscore the importance of taxes in corporate and managerial decisions and they have implications for executive compensation policies.
Investment frictions and leverage dynamics☆
The paper examines the effect of investment frictions on leverage dynamics, using a model of a firm whose investment projects are (1) indivisible and lumpy, and (2) subject to time-to-build. Regressions on the model-simulated data demonstrate that investment frictions can provide alternative interpretations of the observed leverages shown in the empirical literature. Cross-sectional analysis of firms in the oil and gas extraction industries, as well as analysis across all industries, reveals the evidence that small firms have more volatile investments and longer time-to-build, which may explain the observed differences in leverage dynamics across small and large firms.
Ambiguity Without a State Space
Many decisions involve both imprecise probabilities and intractable states of the world. Objective expected utility assumes unambiguous probabilities; subjective expected utility assumes a completely specified state space. This paper analyzes a third domain of preference: sets of consequential lotteries. Using this domain, we develop a theory of Knightian ambiguity without explicitly invoking any state space. We characterize a representation that integrates a monotone transformation of first order expected utility with respect to a second order measure. The concavity of the transformation and the weighting of the measure capture ambiguity aversion. We propose a definition for comparative ambiguity aversion and uniquely characterize absolute ambiguity neutrality. Finally, we discuss applications of the theory: reinsurance, games, and a mean–variance–ambiguity portfolio frontier.
A Discussion of “Importance of Measures of Past Performance: Empirical Evidence on Quality of e‐Service Providers”*
A Review of Tito Boeri, Lans Bovenberg, Benoît Coeuré, and Andrew Roberts's Dealing with the New Giants and Peter J. Orszag, Mark Iwry, and William G. Gale's Aging Gracefully
Global aging will impose greater economic demands on the young and may entail dramatic consumption shortfalls for the old. Against this gloomy backdrop, many analysts hail the world's funded pension systems as a means to protect future retirement security. The monographs reviewed ask how funded pension plans might be restructured to better meet the policy challenges of global aging. Both show that the pension institution must be reformulated to better provide for both economic growth and demographic aging. Questions remain regarding how retirement policy can better integrate intergenerational adequacy and incentive considerations.
A Review of David Colander's The Making of an Economist, Redux
David Colander's update/reworking of his 1987 volume draws conclusions about graduate study in economics from interviews with students in selected leading U.S. programs. Although not formally statistical, the interviews support the conclusion that most of the core of graduate instruction (except macro) is handled very well. Colander's concern about the lack of attention to training teachers is well founded. His conclusion that fewer idiots savants are being trained than in the 1980s is overly optimistic, and his worry about stresses that graduate students express is misplaced.
Automatic bankruptcy auctions and fire-sales☆
We test for fire-sale tendencies in automatic bankruptcy auctions. We find evidence consistent with fire-sale discounts when the auction leads to piecemeal liquidation, but not when the bankrupt firm is acquired as a going concern. Neither industry-wide distress nor the industry affiliation of the buyer affect prices in going-concern sales. Bids are often structured as leveraged buyouts, which relaxes liquidity constraints and reduces bidder underinvestment incentives in the presence of debt overhang. Prices in “prepack” auctions (sales agreements negotiated prior to bankruptcy filing) are on average lower than for in-auction going-concern sales, suggesting that prepacks may help preempt excessive liquidation when the auction is expected to be illiquid. Prepack targets have a greater industry-adjusted probability of refiling for bankruptcy, indicating that liquidation preemption is a risky strategy.
Market timing and the debt–equity choice
We test the market timing theory of capital structure using an earnings-based valuation model that allows us to separate equity mispricing from growth options and time-varying adverse selection; thus avoiding the multiple interpretations of book-to-market ratio. We find that equity market mispricing plays a significant, if not dominant, role in the security choice decision. Our results are robust to the inclusion of proxies for time-varying growth options and alternate methods of measuring misvaluation.