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Does Political Uncertainty Increase External Financing Costs? Measuring the Electoral Premium in Syndicated Lending

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2019 54(5), 2141-2178
This article investigates the impact of political uncertainty on contractual lending terms using a large sample of syndicated loans and a within-firm estimation approach to achieve identification. Firms pay 7 basis points (bps) more on loans originated when their lenders are undergoing an election relative to when their lenders are not undergoing an election. Lenders from less financially developed countries are more likely to pass political uncertainty costs to borrowers. Consistent with electoral uncertainty driving this premium, the most contested elections have the largest impact (17 bps). Overall, political uncertainty leads to a tangible increase in firms’ financing costs.

Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2019 67(1), 98-119
We assess investment banks’ influence over the agreement between their analysts’ research behavior and their clients’ interests, in the post-reform era. Competing banks discipline their analysts with worse career outcomes for producing biased reports, issuing shirking reports, and for involvement in the earnings guidance game, showing meaningful monitoring of their analysts. Highly reputable banks provide more monitoring discipline of their analysts and bonding of their moral hazard than other banks. The findings agree with the banks taking responsibility for aligning analysts’ behavior with clients’ interests.

Measuring contagion risk in international banking

Journal of Financial Stability 2019 42, 36-51
We propose a distress measure for national banking systems that incorporates not only banks’ CDS spreads, but also how they interact with the rest of the global financial system via multiple linkage types. The measure is based on a tensor decomposition method that extracts an adjacency matrix from a multi-layer network, measured using banks’ foreign exposures obtained from the BIS international banking statistics. Based on this adjacency matrix, we develop a new network centrality measure that can be interpreted in terms of a banking system's credit risk or funding risk.

The effects of financial reporting and disclosure on corporate investment: A review

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2019 68(2-3), 101246
A fundamental question in accounting is whether and to what extent financial reporting facilitates the allocation of capital to the right investment projects. Over the last two decades, a large and growing body of literature has contributed to our understanding of whether and why financial reporting affects investment decision-making. We review the empirical literature on this topic, provide a framework to organize this literature, and highlight opportunities for future research.

Are credit rating agencies still relevant? Evidence on certification from Moody's credit watches

Journal of Corporate Finance 2019 59, 119-141
We show that a rating agency can provide certification for corporate borrowers through the mechanism of a credit watch with direction downgrade. We find that firms with watch-preceded rating confirmations (firms for which original ratings are confirmed after a credit watch warning) experience an increase in their long-term debt financing and ramp up their investment activities following the credit watch period. These firms are able to maintain their profitability from before to after the watch period, while we find no such evidence for firms with watch-preceded rating downgrades. Among firms with confirmed ratings, those with less access to credit markets obtain more long-term debt financing at a lower cost of debt capital only in the post-watch period, indicating that rating agencies can help alleviate firm capital constraints. The certification effects persist after controlling for potential endogeneity bias.

Financial Intermediary Capital

Review of Economic Studies 2019 86(1), 413-455
We propose a dynamic theory of financial intermediaries that are better able to collateralize claims than households, that is, have a collateralization advantage. Intermediaries require capital as they have to finance the additional amount that they can lend out of their own net worth. The net worth of financial intermediaries and the corporate sector are both state variables affecting the spread between intermediated and direct finance and the dynamics of real economic activity, such as investment, and financing. The accumulation of net worth of intermediaries is slow relative to that of the corporate sector. The model is consistent with key stylized facts about macroeconomic downturns associated with a credit crunch, namely, their severity, their protractedness, and the fact that the severity of the credit crunch itself affects the severity and persistence of downturns. The model captures the tentative and halting nature of recoveries from crises.

Chasing Private Information

Review of Financial Studies 2019 32(12), 4997-5047
Abstract Using over 5,000 trades unequivocally based on nonpublic information about firm fundamentals, we find that asymmetric information proxies display abnormal values on days with informed trading. Volatility and volume are abnormally high, whereas illiquidity is low, in equity and option markets. Daily returns reflect the sign of private signals, but bid-ask spreads are lower when informed investors trade. Market makers’ learning under event uncertainty and limit orders help explain these findings. The cross-section of information duration indicates that traders select days with high uninformed volume. Evidence from the U.S. SEC Whistleblower Reward Program and the FINRA involvement addresses selection concerns. Received January 11, 2017; editorial decision December 17, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Strategic reactions in corporate tax planning

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2019 68(1), 101232
We find that firms’ tax planning exhibits strategic reactions: firms respond to changes in their industry-competitors’ tax planning by changing their own tax planning in the same direction. We document evidence of these strategic reactions in two distinct research settings that entail an exogenous increase and decrease in competitors’ tax planning. We also find evidence that strategic reactions stem from concerns about appearing more tax aggressive than industry competitors, some evidence that they stem from firms learning from the tax planning of their industry competitors, and no consistent evidence that they stem from leader-follower dynamics.

Accounting quality and the transmission of monetary policy

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2019 68(2-3), 101265
We examine how firms' accounting quality affects their reaction to monetary policy. The balance sheet channel of monetary policy predicts that the quality of firms' accounting reports plays a role in transmitting monetary policy by affecting information asymmetries between firms and capital providers. Consistent with this prediction, we find that accounting quality moderates firms' equity market response and future investment sensitivity to unexpected changes in monetary policy. Moreover, the former relation is amplified for firms with more growth opportunities and more financial constraints, further consistent with accounting quality moderating the transmission of monetary policy.