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Limited Investor Attention and Stock Market Misreactions to Accounting Information

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2011 1(1), 35-73
We provide a model in which a single psychological constraint, limited attention, explains both under- and overreaction to different earnings components. Investor neglect of earn-ings induces post-earnings announcement drift and the profit anomaly. Neglect of earnings components causes accrual and cash flow anomalies. The model offers empirical implica-tions relating the strength of earnings-related anomalies to the forecasting power of current earnings-related information for future earnings, investor attentiveness, and the volatilities of and correlation between accruals and cash flows. We also show that, owing to atten-tion costs, in equilibrium not all investors choose to attend to earnings or its components. (JEL G12, G14, M41, M43) Market reactions to earnings and earnings components present a striking puzzle. Stock prices on average underreact to earnings surprises (post-earnings an-nouncement drift), but overreact to the operating accruals component of earn-ings.1 Earnings- and accruals-related patterns of return predictability are often referred to as “anomalies, ” “under- ” and “overreaction, ” or reflecting investor “optimism, ” “pessimism, ” or “naı̈veté. ” Such labels offer little guidance as to

Trust and Household Debt

Review of Finance 2018 22(2), 783-812
Using a large sample of US individuals, we show that individuals with higher levels of trust have lower likelihoods of default in household debt and higher net worth. The effect is driven by trust values inherited from cultural and family backgrounds more than by trust beliefs about others. We demonstrate a causal impact of trust on financial outcomes by extracting the component of trust correlated with early-life experiences. The effect of trust is more pronounced among females, those with lower education, lower income, lower financial literacy, and higher debt-to-income ratio. Further evidence suggests that enhancing individuals’ trust, to the right amount, can improve household financial well-being.

Continuing Overreaction and Stock Return Predictability

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2016 51(6), 2015-2046
We study the return predictability of a measure of continuing overreaction based on the weighted average of signed volumes. We find that the strategies of buying stocks with upward continuing overreaction and selling stocks with downward continuing overreaction generate significant positive returns and that our measure of continuing overreaction is a better predictor of future returns than past returns. The results are stronger among stocks primarily held by investors more prone to biased self-attribution. Our results provide direct support for the model of return predictability based on overconfidence and biased self-attribution.