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Terrorism and Patriotism: On the Earnings of US Veterans following September 11, 2001

American Economic Review 2012 102(3), 261-266
Using data from the 2000 census and the 2001-08 American Community Surveys, this paper examines the impact of 9/11 on the earnings of US veteran men. Our hypothesis is that the surge in patriotism after 9/11 improved their relative earnings, but this earnings effect was short-lived. In addition, we further consider whether this effect was equally felt across race/ethnicity and along regional dimensions. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find a significant short-term improvement in the relative earnings of US veteran men following 9/11. However, additional analyses suggest that this earnings effect did not evenly occur across demographic and geographic dimensions.

Lack of Anonymity and the Inference from Order Flow

Review of Financial Studies 2012 25(5), 1414-1456
This article investigates the information content of signals about the identity of investors and their role in price formation. Whereas we document that investors use multiple brokers, broker identity is nevertheless a powerful signal about the identity of investors who initiate trades. The market also correctly processes this signal: the permanent price impact of orders coming from different brokers fits the information profile of the investors associated with these brokers. Our results suggest that an increase in the degree of anonymity may render order flow less informative, which could explain why the literature has documented liquidity improvements in exchanges that reduce transparency.

Downside risk aversion, fixed-income exposure, and the value premium puzzle

Journal of Banking & Finance 2012 36(12), 3382-3398
The value premium is relatively small for investors with a material fixed-income exposure, such as insurance companies and pension funds, especially when they are downside-risk-averse. Value stocks are less attractive to these investors because they offer a relatively poor hedge against poor bond returns. This result arises for plausible, medium-term evaluation horizons of around one year. Our findings cast doubt on the practical relevance of the value premium for these investors and reiterate the importance of the choice of the relevant test portfolio, risk measure and investment horizon in empirical tests of market portfolio efficiency.

Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibrium Models

American Economic Review 2012 102(4), 1663-1691
The household's labor margin has a substantial effect on risk aversion, and hence asset prices, in dynamic equilibrium models even when utility is additively separable between consumption and labor. This paper derives simple, closed-form expressions for risk aversion that take into account the household's labor margin. Ignoring this margin can dramatically overstate the household's true aversion to risk. Risk premia on assets priced with the stochastic discount factor increase essentially linearly with risk aversion, so measuring risk aversion correctly is crucial for asset pricing in the model.

Macroenvironmental determinants of operational loss severity

Journal of Banking & Finance 2012 36(5), 1362-1380
We investigate the relationships between the severity of operational loss events reported in the banking sector and various regulatory, legal, geographical, and economic indicators. Based on a data sample of over 57,000 losses incurred in more than 130 countries reported by the Operational Riskdata eXchange (ORX) consortium, we identify the most relevant exposure indicators for losses in four Basel II event categories: Internal Fraud; External Fraud; Employment Practices and Workplace Safety; and Clients, Products and Business Practices. We find evidence of significant correlations between Internal Fraud and constraints on executive power and the prevalence of insider trading. Clients, Products and Business Practices losses are significantly related to securities and shareholder protection laws, restrictions on banking activity, supervisory power, and the prevalence of insider trading. Other event types are sensitive to per-capita GDP and a governance index.

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2012 94(4), 1066-1080
In this paper, we propose a new family of multivariate loss functions to test the rationality of vector forecasts without assuming independence across variables. When only one variable is of interest, the loss function reduces to the flexible asymmetric family proposed by Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmerman (2008). Following their methodology, we derive~a GMM test for multivariate forecast rationality that allows the forecaster's loss to be nonseparable across variables and takes into account forecast estimation uncertainty. We use our test to study the joint rationality of macroeconomic forecasts in the growth rate of nominal output, CPI inflation rate, and short-term interest rate.