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International Trade, Comparative Advantage and the Incidence of Layoff Unemployment Spells

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1995 77(3), 511
The gains and losses to factors of production from trade are discussed primarily within the context of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem which focuses on factor rewards. But policy makers are more concerned about employment effects of trade. This paper focuses on the short-run effects of trade on the incidence of layoffs in U.S. manufacturing industries. A probit model with endogenous switching is employed to estimate the effects of trade shocks and explore the role of comparative advantage on layoffs. The evidence suggests that trade shocks play a minor role in the incidence of layoff spells. However, net importing industries tend to adjust their labor force through layoffs to a greater extent than net exporting industries.