This paper develops a simple time series model of emigration and applies it to data for emigration from the UK, 1870-1913. The model is derived from a microeconomic analysis of the migration decision and provides a specific functional form and dynamic structure. It encompasses and explains many of the empirical findings of earlier research on the determinants of emigration over this historical period. The results support the model strongly in most respects. Both wage rates and employment rates in the sending and in the receiving countries influenced fluctuations in emigration. The short-run fluctuations were driven largely by variations in employment rates while the long-run level of emigration was determined largely by the relative wage. -Author

Refugees and asylum seekers are only a small proportion of the 60 million forcibly displaced persons. But those seeking asylum in the developed world have received much of the attention as western governments have struggled to develop a policy response. An analysis of asylum applications by origin and destination indicates that these flows are largely driven by political terror and human rights abuses. Poor economic conditions in origin countries and tough asylum policies in destination countries matter too. In the light of the findings I suggest that greater coordination among OECD countries could improve the lot of those fleeing from persecution but even this would make only modest inroads into the sum of human misery that displaced people exemplify.

In this paper we develop and estimate a model to explain variations in immigration to the United States by source country since the early 1970s. The explanatory variables include ratios to the United States of source country income and education as well as relative inequality. In addition, we incorporate the stock of previous immigrants and a variety of variables representing different dimensions of the immigration quotas set by policy. We use the results to shed light on the impact of policy by simulating the effects of the key changes in immigration policy since the late 1970s. We also examine the factors that influenced the composition of U.S. immigration by source region over the entire period.