The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World, by Paul Morland, argues for the importance of demography in both historical events and our current situation. Intended for a general audience, the book traces demographic developments from the late eighteenth century, arguing that the timing and pace of demographic change helps to explain why some countries became powerful and others did not. The author continues the story into the twentieth century, discussing the changes in age structure and internal ethno-religious balances that are consequences of demographic patterns. Many readers will find the questions and themes in The Human Tide interesting. Unfortunately, the book misrepresents some research findings and is confused about important demographic concepts. The Human Tide deals with fundamental changes in human society over the past two centuries, but for a clear account of those changes, readers will have to go elsewhere.

The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstandings of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work.

Germany's financial system differs in many respects from those of the United States or Britain. One key difference is the banking system, which plays a relatively greater role in Germany. Germany has long had universal banks, institutions that provide a full range of financial services. Some economic historians attribute Germany's economic success, in part, to these institutions. In the United States arguments for the deregulation of banking often stress the supposed advantages of German-style universal banks. A long tradition in economic history focuses on close connections between large banks and industrial firms that allegedly allowed the banks to play an unusual role in industrial finance. This view of the German banking system misses some important parts of the story, including the relatively late development of the current institutions and the important role of other banking institutions such as savings banks and credit cooperatives. This paper traces the development of the German banking system in the century prior to World War I, stressing those aspects of the history that inform both discussions in the economics of information and banking, and debates about the deregulation of banking today.

Banks play a greater role in the German financial system than in those of the United States or Britain. Germany's large universal banks are admired by those who advocate bank deregulation in the United States. Others admire the universal banks for their supposed role in corporate governance and industrial finance. Many discussions distort the German banking system by overstressing one of several types of banks, and ignore the competition and cooperation between the famous universal banks and other banking groups. Tracing the historical development of the German banking system from the early nineteenth century places the large universal banks in context.

This paper first sets the demographic consequences of the Great Famine in the context of Irelands long-term population history and then discusses what may be the most puzzling feature of Irish population history the demographic patterns that emerged during the second half of the 19th century. The paper focuses on rural Ireland where these changes were most stark. (EXCERPT)