We conjecture that banks present in two regions charge the appropriate risk premiums for trade-related projects between these markets, whereas higher rates are charged for projects involving shipments to markets where they are absent. These differences affect regional trade flows. US interstate banking deregulation serves as a natural experiment to test our model's implication with the Commodity Flow Survey data. Difference-in-differences estimates suggest that the trade share of state-pairs that allowed pairwise interstate entry increased by 14% over 10 years relative to non-integrated state-pairs. Instrumental variables estimates suggest that an actual increase in bank integration from zero to 2.28% (the mean) increases trade 17% to 25%.

Using U.S. interstate banking deregulations, we identify the effect of market-entering banks’ prior industry exposures on the manufacturing sector growth in the new state that they enter. We create banking integration and industry specialization measures that consider both direct (state-pair) as well as indirect (tertiary-state) links created by expanding multi-bank holding company networks. First, consistent with the economic mechanism we have in mind, we observe that banks’ home state's industrial specialization is positively correlated with their lending specialization when participating to in-state as well as out-of-state syndicated loan markets. Then, focusing on industry value added at the state-industry-level, we find evidence consistent with the positive impact of market-entering banks’ prior exposure to a sector on the growth of that industry in the newly-entered state. The observed effect is larger when the state-pair-level discrepancy in sector-specialization is greater. Our findings are robust and hold in capital-related components of industry-level value added. We observe that the above results are more prominent in sectors that are more external finance dependent, have lower amounts of physical capital that can be pledged as collateral, generate more valuable patents, are durables-producers, and have a higher risk. Our findings suggest that a bank integration channel helps shape states’ industrial landscape.

Using Benford's law, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries at times misreport their economic data strategically. We group countries with similar economic conditions and find that for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes, high negative net foreign asset positions, negative current account balances, or more vulnerable to capital flow reversals, we reject the first-digit law for the balance-of-payments data. This corroborates the intuition of a simple economic model. The main results do not seem to be driven by countries in sub-Saharan Africa or those with low institutional quality ratings.

We test the trade finance channel of exports by controlling for the bank credit channel. Using Turkey’s July 2012 adoption of Basel II as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine whether shocks to trade financing costs affect exports. With data for 16,662 Turkish exporters shipping 2,888 different products to 158 countries, we find that the share of letters-of-credit-based exports decreases (increases) when the associated risk weights for counterparty exposure increase (decrease) after the adoption of Basel II. However, growth of firm-product-country-level exports remains unaffected. Trade financing might have a lesser role in exports than previously suggested by the previous literature. Received October 26, 2014; editorial decision March 15, 2017 by Editor Philip Strahan.

We examine the propagation of a small unexpected supply shock through a production network and the role financial constraints play in its transmission. Using data on almost all Turkish supplier-customer links, we exploit the heterogeneous impact of an unexpected import-tax increase for identification. We find that this relatively minor shock had a nontrivial economic impact on exposed firms and propagated downstream through affected suppliers. Importantly, we show that low-liquidity firms amplified its transmission.