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Correlation in credit risk changes

Journal of Banking & Finance 2012 36(4), 1093-1106
The current economic climate makes understanding credit risk correlation particularly important. After allowing for a comprehensive set of observable firm-specific, industry, market, and macroeconomic factors, there is an economically significant co-movement in credit default swap spreads that remains to be explained. Including a time dummy completely accounts for the remaining co-movement, confirming the existence of a systematic component that has been previously unaccounted for. Our findings suggest that it may be important to consider unobservable risk factor(s) in credit risk models.