This paper documents the existence of a persistent component in consumption growth. We take a novel approach using news coverage to capture investor concern about economic growth prospects. We provide evidence that consumption growth is highly predictable over long horizons—our measure explains between 23% and 38% of cumulative future consumption growth at the five‐year horizon and beyond. Furthermore, we show a strong connection between this predictability and asset prices. Innovations to our measure price 51 standard portfolios in the cross section and our one‐factor model outperforms many benchmark macro‐ and return‐based multifactor models.

This paper examines the effect of shareholder governance on firms' cost of borrowing using the voting outcomes of shareholder-sponsored anti-takeover governance proposals. Implementing a regression discontinuity design centered around the proposals' passing thresholds, we show that firms' public debt prices fall significantly upon the proposals' passage, and that banks demand higher interest rates and more general covenants on new loans issued to those firms. We find that these effects are more pronounced for riskier firms where shareholder-debtholder conflicts are more severe. Moreover, firms with passed shareholder-sponsored proposals become more volatile, reflecting an increase in their risk-shifting incentives. Collectively, our findings suggest that shareholder governance exacerbates shareholder-debtholder conflicts and raises firms’ cost of borrowing.