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Environmental Protection: A Theory of Direct and Indirect Competition for Political Influence

Review of Economic Studies 2005 72(1), 269-286
How is it that environmental groups can have a strong impact on environmental policy but without much lobbying? This paper develops a model of "direct" (lobbying the government) and "indirect" (persuading the public) competition for political influence and finds that they are complementary. However, an increase in the effectiveness of public persuasion, or a rise of public environmental awareness, induces substitution between the two. The findings establish that the empirical phenomenon of lack of political contribution from environmental groups may not be related to financial constraints, but to their greater effectiveness in public persuasion and growing public environmental awareness.

Accounting transparency and the term structure of credit spreads

Journal of Financial Economics 2005 75(1), 53-84
Theory predicts that the quality of a firm's information disclosure can affect the term structure of its corporate bond yield spreads. Using cross-sectional regression and Nelson-Siegel yield curve estimation, I find that firms with higher Association for Investment Management and Research disclosure rankings tend to have lower credit spreads. Moreover, this transparency spread is especially large among short-term bonds. These findings are consistent with the theory of discretionary disclosure as well as the incomplete accounting information model of Duffie and Lando (Econometrica 69 (2001) 633). The presence of a sizable short-term transparency spread can attenuate some of the empirical problems associated with structural credit risk models.

Intraday price reversals in the US stock index futures market: A 15-year study

Journal of Banking & Finance 2005 29(5), 1311-1327
This paper gives a long-term assessment of intraday price reversals in the US stock index futures market following large price changes at the market open. We find highly significant intraday price reversals over a 15-year period (November 1987–September 2002) as well as significant intraday reversals in our yearly and day-of-the-week investigations. Moreover, the strength of the intraday overreaction phenomenon seems more pronounced following large positive price changes at the market open. That being said, the question of whether a trader can consistently profit from this information remains open as the significance of intraday price reversals is sharply reduced when gross trading results are adjusted by a bid–ask proxy for transactions costs.

Fair insurance guaranty premia in the presence of risk-based capital regulations, stochastic interest rate and catastrophe risk

Journal of Banking & Finance 2005 29(10), 2435-2454
A multiperiod model is developed to measure the costs posed to the guaranty fund in a setting that incorporates risk-based capital regulations, interest rate risk and the possibility of catastrophic losses. The guaranty contract is modeled as a put option on the asset of the insurance company with a stochastic strike price and an uncertain maturity. The impacts of the key factors of this model are examined numerically and shown to make material differences in the costs to the guaranty fund.

Solving Asset Pricing Models when the Price-Dividend Function Is Analytic

Econometrica 2005 73(3), 961-982
We present a new method for solving asset pricing models, which yields an analytic price-dividend function of one state variable. To illustrate our method we give a detailed analysis of Abel's asset pricing model. A function is analytic in an open interval if it can be represented as a convergent power series near every point of that interval. In addition to allowing us to solve for the exact equilibrium price-dividend function, the analyticity property also lets us assess the accuracy of any numerical solution procedure used in the asset pricing literature. Copyright The Econometric Society 2005.