Journal Article Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt Get access Eugene F. Fama, Eugene F. Fama University of Chicago Address correspondence to Eugene F. Fama, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1101 East 58th St., Chicago, IL 60637, or e-mail: [email protected]. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Kenneth R. French Kenneth R. French Dartmouth College Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 15, Issue 1, January 2002, Pages 1–33, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/15.1.1 Published: 16 June 2015

We estimate the equity premium using dividend and earnings growth rates to measure the expected rate of capital gain. Our estimates for 1951 to 2000, 2.55 percent and 4.32 percent, are much lower than the equity premium produced by the average stock return, 7.43 percent. Our evidence suggests that the high average return for 1951 to 2000 is due to a decline in discount rates that produces a large unexpected capital gain. Our main conclusion is that the average stock return of the last half‐century is a lot higher than expected.