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The Challenge of Economic Leadership

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1976 11(4), 529
The challenge of leadership is to look beyond the current expansion to consider the long–term outlook for the U. S. economy. My good friend Paul W. McCracken once described this process as looking across the valley to see what is on the other side. His message was: “What will be different on the other side of the valley is far more relevant to business planning than the valley itself.” Such advice is particularly meaningful at this time because of the basic need for more stability in our economic policies.

The Measurement of Hirschmanian Linkages

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1976 90(2), 323
I. Introduction, 323. — II. Direct linkages, 324, — III. Indirect linkages: Y & N and Rasmussen, 325. — IV. The “output inverse” and forward linkages, 327. — V. Average and total linkage, 329. — VI. Trade effects, 329. — VII. The level of aggregation, 331. — VIII. Conclusion, 332. — Appendix: simple numerical example, 333.

The Origin and Development of Media of Exchange

Journal of Political Economy 1976 84(4, Part 1), 757-775
The paper develops an explanation for the emergence of media of exchange through the unconcerted market behavior of individuals. Individuals are assumed to accomplish their ultimate exchanges through trading sequences which minimize the expected time spent searching for complementary trading partners. If individual perceptions of the trading environment are appropriately restricted, then the equilibrium pattern of trade will be some mixture of direct barter and use of a common good as medium of exchange. Although full monetization is always a locally stable exchange pattern, the economy may remain in universal direct barter or partially monetized states.

Option pricing

Journal of Financial Economics 1976 3(1-2), 3-51
Recent advances in the general equilibrium pricing of simple put and call options lay the foundation for the development of a general theory of the valuation of contingent claims assets. This paper provides a review of: (1) the development of the general equilibrium option pricing model by Black and Scholes, and the subsequent modifications of this model by Merton and others; (2) the empirical verification of these models; and (3) applications of these models to value other contingent claim assets such as the debt and equity of a levered firm and dual purpose mutual funds.

International Trade Theory in Vintage Models

Review of Economic Studies 1976 43(1), 99
Journal Article International Trade Theory in Vintage Models Get access M. A. M. Smith M. A. M. Smith London School of Economics Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 43, Issue 1, February 1976, Pages 99–113, https://doi.org/10.2307/2296604 Published: 01 February 1976 Article history Received: 01 June 1974 Accepted: 01 April 1975 Published: 01 February 1976

The Supply of Urban Housing

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1976 90(3), 389
I. The problem of housing supply analysis, 389.—II. Controlling for quality in a location-constrained model, 391.—III. Empirical work, 400.—IV. Summary and implications of empirical results and methodology, 402.

On the Use of Two-Stage Least Squares in Financial Models: A Comment

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1976 11(3), 505
There appears to be growing interest in the development and estimation of simultaneous equation models for finance. Simkowitz and Jones [11] stimulated much of this concern in their observations on the need for these structures. Moreover, Simkowitz's application to the modeling of security returns with Logue [12] provides some support for these suggestions. Recently Lloyd [6] has argued that there may be significant problems in using two-stage least squares (hereafter 2SLS) with such models as a result of the potential for contemporaneous correlation in the structural errors across equations. The purpose of this note is to question several of Lloyd's conclusions and to provide some evidence that his findings may not be representative for the broad array of simultaneous models applicable to financial problems.