Knowledge that Transforms

Demand and Price Analysis, Research Methods/Statistical Methods

T HE model presented in this paper is a system of recursive linear regression equations, the parameters of which are esti-mated from monthly series of data covering the

This paper attempts to shed new light on the extent to which college education brings financial returns. It recognizes the existence of a number of variables that are likely to affect the financial returns that education produces for a given person -particularly the student's ability and motivation, and the quality of his schooling. It attempts to isolate returns to education from returns to these other related variables.

The article shows that innovations are induced, since they become more profitable with the expansion of output. The amount of resources devoted to innovating activity, however, is in general not the optimal one because of the pressure of two opposing forces. On the one hand, competition between potential innovators tends to make this amount too large, on the other, the inability of innovators to capture all the benefits tends to make the amount too small. When all benefits are captured by the innovator either there is no economic growth due to innovations or else innovators are the sole beneficiaries from that growth. When benefits are diffused the innovation will always lead to economic growth, but only by sheer coincidence will it lead to maximum growth, which may be missed because the innovation is introduced either too early or too late. The rate of growth is always positive if the innovation is introduced too late. It may fall to zero with too-early introduction or even become negative if innovational activity is subsidized.

International Development

R. Sato, M. Beckmann; Neutral Inventions and Production Functions: an Addendum, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 35, Issue 3, 1 July 1968, Pages 366,

One externality which has received little attention from economists is that connected with congestion (a recent treatment is Strotz, 1965). An increase in the utilization of a facility can result in longer waiting time or in a less appealing service. For example, an increased number of tows on a water- way can give rise to greater delays at locks; a larger crowd at a beach can lead to a lower satisfaction for each "customer." The former case, which involves production, is particularly complex. Here, delay is caused either by the random arrival of customers or by a random service (production) rate. Serving tows at a lock is analogous to serving shoppers at a super- market checkout stand. Similar problems occur with respect to allocating docking facilities in a port, runways and terminals in an airport, land to streets in an industrial park, and machines in a job shop

Detailed comparisons of the performance of the alternative theories of corporate investment are given in Jorgenson and Siebert (1968, Tables 2, 4, and 5). 2 Equivalence between maximization of the market value of the firm and maximization of profit at each point of time is discussed by Malinvaud (1953) and, more recently, by Arrow (1964).The essential idea is implicit in Haavelmo's theory of investment (1960).II23 * Mean annual gross investment for the postwar period, 1946-1963, in billions of 1954 dollars.t End-of-year net fixed assets for 1961 in billions of 1954 dollars.

Economists have recently grown interested in doing research on research or R & D, as it is called in industrial circles. Several studies have tested Schumpeter's hoary hypothesis that large firms are responsible for most industrial inventive activity.1 Few of these studies, however, suggest why this hypothesis is apparently valid for some industries and not for others. And statistical studies going beyond this question, to try to relate R & D expenditures to firm profit expectations and the avail-ability of funds as in other investment decisions, are rare (Mansfield, 1964; Mueller, 1967). This paper reports the results of an empirical investigation into the determinants of research expenditures in three industries-drugs, chemicals, and petroleum refining. These industries have three advantages for such a study: (1) they are among the leaders in total R & D expenditures; (2) most activity is concentrated in an appreciable number of large or moderately large firms; and (3) government support of research work is