Knowledge that Transforms

Individuals involved in basic research, like other workers, respond to incentives. Funding agencies provide implicit incentives when they specify the rules by which awards are made. The following analysis is an exercise in understanding incentives at an applied level. Specific rules are examined. What is the effect of rewarding past effort? What happens when a few large awards are replaced by many small awards? How does the timing of an award affect effort? How does an agency choose which topics to fund? Socially optimal rules are derived.

What are the fundamental driving forces of macroeconomic fluctuations? In particular, why do people spend more time working in booms and less in recessions? These are basic questions of macroeconomics. Recent thinking has emphasized technology shifts, preference shifts, and changes in government purchases as likely driving forces. It is useful to distinguish atemporal and intertemporal effects of the driving forces. Under standard assumptions, the technology shift has no effect through atemporal channels because income and substitution effects exactly offset. A straightforward decomposition of movements of employment attributes most of them to the atemporal effects of preference shifts.

Divergent trends in the real value of the minimum wage in Mexico and Colombia in the 1980s provide an opportunity for evaluating the impact of minimum wages on developing economies. Using panel data for each country, substantial disemployment effects of minimum wages are found in Colombia, where the impact is estimated at roughly 2%–12% over the 1981–87 period. In Mexico, minimum wages have had no effect on wages or employment in the formal sector. The key explanation for the different impact is that the minimum wage is an effective wage in Colombia but not in Mexico.

We examine the impact of recent trade reforms. Although employment in the average private sector manufacturing firm was unaffected, there were significant employment losses to exporters and highly affected firms. Parastatals increased employment by hiring low‐paid temporary workers. Many firms did not adjust wages or employment. We examine two possible explanations. First, barriers to labor market mobility could have impeded adjustment. Second, we develop a model of labor demand which allows for imperfect competition and endogenous technological change. Our results suggest that although labor markets were flexible, many firms cut profit margins and raised productivity rather than reducing employment.

Volunteer activity is work performed without monetary recompense. This article shows that volunteering is a sizeable economic activity in the United States, that volunteers have high skills and opportunity costs of time, that standard labor supply explanations of volunteering account for only a minor part of volunteer behavior, and that many volunteer only when requested to do so. This suggests that volunteering is a "conscience good or activity"-something that people feel morally obligated to do when asked, but which they would just as soon let someone else do.

The correlation between instruments and explanatory variables is a key determinant of the performance of the instrumental variables estimator. The R-squared from regressing the explanatory variable on the instrument vector is a useful measure of relevance in univariate models, but can be misleading when there are multiple endogenous variables. This paper proposes a computationally simple partial R- squared measure of instrument relevance for multivariate models.

Hendricks, Patel, and Zeckhauser (1997) (HPZ) find that the response of current to past returns for mutual funds in the presence of survivorship is nonlinear. In our rejoinder to their paper, we verify their results through simulation, provide some intuition for why the result is true, and evaluate the power of their proposed test based upon the J - shape pattern. Theirs is a useful contribution to the growing literature about the issue of survival biases in empirical finance. It may help to explain puzzling results reported in the mutual fund literature, and may provide a guide for future experimental design. Our investigation of the HPZ results led us to a more complete understanding of how differential volatility affects survival - conditioned returns. Our simulations of the test statistic proposed by HPZ suggest that the power of the test is dependent on the absolute level of the threshold, as well as on the magnitude of the cross - sectional differences in variance. While it would be useful to have a reliable test of the conjecture that survivorship is not driving an observed empirical result, we are only beginning to understand the kind of empirical regularities that survival may induce. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The purpose of this paper is to empirically estimate the effect of alcohol advertising on motor vehicle fatalities. The concept of an industry level advertising response function is developed and other empirical issues in estimating the effects of advertising are reviewed. The data set consists of quarterly observations, from 1986 to 1989, for 75 advertising markets in the United States and includes 1200 observations. Since motor vehicle fatalities and alcohol advertising are jointly determined, Two Stage Least Squares is used in the estimation. Reduced form fatality models and advertising models are also estimated to predict the effect of changes in the price of advertising. The regression results show that alcohol advertising has a significant and positive effect on motor vehicle fatalities. The data and regression results are used to estimate the effects of two policy options. The first option is to ban all broadcast alcohol advertising. The data indicate that if a ban on broadcast alcohol advertising did not also include bans on other types of alcohol marketing, the effect on motor vehicle fatalities might be in the range of 2000 to 3000 lives saved per year. The second policy is the elimination of the tax deductibility of alcohol advertising. This policy could reduce alcohol advertising by about 27 percent, reduce motor vehicle fatalities by about 2300 deaths per year and raise about $336 million a year in new tax revenue.

This paper uses real estate investment data for major groups of U.S. financial institutions—commercial banks, thrifts, and life insurance companies—to evaluate their investment timing performance over the 1970–1989 period. Our major finding is that real estate investments by commercial banks and thrifts have largely been driven by past real estate and market returns rather than by future expected returns. This apparent “trend-chasing” investment strategy—of buying high and selling low—offers an explanation for the poor performance of their real estate investments. We argue that imposing market value accounting on such institutions may actually reinforce their “trend-chasing” behavior.

Abstract As nontariff forms of trade protection proliferate it has become more difficult to analyze the impact of trade policy on trade flows. In a number of well-known papers researchers have attempted to infer the impact of trade policy indirectly by ascribing to trade policy the differences between actual and predicted trade flows. Much of the work has been applied to analysis of Japanese trade policy, and the conclusions of these studies have differed widely. Some previous research has also ascribed a role to the keiretsu, or networks of affiliated firms, in explaining Japan's apparently distinctive trade performance. This paper presents a model that integrates data on factor endowments, observable protection in traditional and nontraditional forms, and the keiretsu. It extends existing research in two principal ways. First, alternative cross-national models of comparative advantage are nested to permit the identification of critical modeling assumptions underlying the divergent conclusions of the previous studies. Second, the results of the indirect method are externally validated by confronting these inferences with data on trade policy and the keiretsu. The results indicate that trade policy and the keiretsu have an important impact on Japanese trade performance.