Knowledge that Transforms

Much nonmanagerial work is routine, with all workers having similar output most of the time. However, failure to address occasional challenges can be very costly, and consequently easily detected, while challenges handled well pass unnoticed. We analyze job assignment and worker monitoring for such “guardian” jobs. If monitoring costs are positive but small, monitoring is nonmonotonic in the firm’s belief about the probability that a worker is good. The model explains several empirical regularities regarding nonmanagerial internal labor markets: low use of performance pay, seniority pay, rare demotions, wage ceilings within grade, and wage jumps at promotion.

Private equity firms are often criticized for laying off workers, but the evidence on who loses their jobs and why is scarce. This paper argues that explanations for job polarization also explain layoffs after private equity buyouts. Buyouts reduce agency problems, which triggers automation and offshoring. Using rich employer-employee data, we show that buyouts generally do not affect unemployment incidence. However, unemployment incidence doubles for workers in less productive firms who perform routine or offshorable job tasks. Job polarization is also much more marked among workers affected by buyouts than for the economy at large.

We investigate the impact of local social pressure on firms’ firing decisions. Using linked employer-employee data, we show that secondary establishments located further away from headquarters have higher dismissal rates than those located closer. The effect of distance on dismissals is stronger, the greater the visibility of the firm in the local community of its headquarters and the larger the degree of selfishness of that community. We show that these findings can be explained by the social pressure exerted by the communities where firms’ headquarters are located, which induces CEOs to refrain from dismissing at short distance from their headquarters.

We evaluate the educational returns to General Educational Development (GED) certification using state administrative data. We use fuzzy regression discontinuity (FRD) methods to account for the fact that GED test-takers can repeatedly retake the test until they pass it and the fact that test-takers have to pass all five subtests before receiving the GED. We find that the GED increases the likelihood of postsecondary attendance and course completion substantially but that the GED impact on overall credits completed is modest; the GED causes an average increment of only two credits for men and six credits for women.

We propose a general framework for determining the extent of measurement error bias in ordinary least squares and instrumental variable (IV) estimators of linear models while allowing for measurement error in the validation source. We apply this method by validating Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe data with Danish administrative registers. Contrary to most validation studies, we find that measurement error in income is classical once we account for imperfect validation data. We find nonclassical measurement error in schooling, causing a 38% amplification bias in IV estimators of the returns, with important implications for the program evaluation literature.

This paper examines the effects of an intervention that expanded access to low-cost, government-sponsored, community-based playgroups in rural Indonesia. Instrumental variables and difference-in-differences models indicate that while the intervention raised enrollment rates and durations of enrollment for everyone, on average, there was little impact on child development. The two models correspond to different durations of project exposure. The difference-in-differences model captures greater exposure and shows that there are modest and sustained impacts on child development—especially for children from more disadvantaged backgrounds. There is also evidence that the intervention encouraged substitution away from other services, such as kindergartens.

While a large literature has focused on the impact of parental investments on child cognitive development, very little is known about the role of the child’s own investments alongside that of the parents. By using the Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we model the cognitive production function for adolescents using an augmented value-added model and adopt an estimation method that takes account of unobserved child characteristics. We find that a child’s own investments made during adolescence matter more than the mother’s. Our empirical results appear to be robust to several sensitivity checks.

We implement a regression discontinuity design using the continuous raw Advanced Placement (AP) exam scores, which are mapped into the observed 1–5 integer scores, for over 4.5 million students. Earning higher AP integer scores positively affects college completion and subsequent exam-taking. Specifically, attaining credit-granting integer scores increases the probability that a student will receive a bachelor’s degree within 4 years by 1–2 percentage points per exam. We also find that receiving a score of 3 over a 2 on junior year AP exams causes students to take between 0.06 and 0.14 more AP exams senior year.

We provide the first evidence of the magnitude and consequences of the Americanization of migrants’ names in the early twentieth century. We construct a longitudinal data set of naturalization records, tracking migrants and their naming choices over time. We consistently find that migrants who Americanized their names experienced larger occupational upgrading than those who did not. Name Americanization embodies an intention to assimilate among low-skilled migrants and reveals the existence of preferences for American names within the labor market. We conclude that the trade-off between individual identity and labor market success was present then as it is today.

Does access to 4-year colleges affect degree completion for students who would otherwise attend 2-year colleges? Admission to Georgia’s 4-year public sector requires minimum SAT scores. Regression discontinuity estimates show that access to this sector increases 4-year college enrollment and college quality, largely by diverting students from 2-year colleges. Access substantially increases bachelor’s degree completion rates for these relatively low-skilled students. SAT-retaking behavior suggests students value access to 4-year public colleges, though perhaps less than they should. Our results imply that absolute college quality matters more than match quality, and they suggest potential unintended consequences of free community college proposals.