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Fair value disclosures by bank holding companies

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1996 22(1-3), 79-117 open access
This paper examines the value relevance of fair value data disclosed under SFAS 107 by banks for 1992 and 1993. Collectively, the evidence suggests differences between fair and book values of financial instruments are associated with market-to-book ratios. However, fair value disclosures for financial instruments other than securities are value-relevant only in limited settings. In addition, only in 1992 are fair value variables associated with market-to-book ratios after incorporating existing historical cost information. Further analysis suggests the weaker 1993 results are not necessarily due to increased measurement error in fair value numbers.

Value-relevance of nonfinancial information: The wireless communications industry

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1996 22(1-3), 3-30 open access
We examine the value-relevance to investors of financial (accounting) and nonfinancial information of independent cellular companies and find that, on a stand-alone basis, financial information (earnings, book values, and cash flows) are largely irrelevant for security valuation. Nonfinancial indicators, such as POPS (a growth proxy) and Market Penetration (an operating performance measure), are highly value-relevant. However, combined with nonfinancial information, earnings do contribute to the explanation of prices. The complementarity between financial and nonfinancial data is highlighted in this study.

The Relevance of Characteristics of the Information Environment in the Selection of a Proxy for the Market's Expectations for Earnings: An Extension of Brown, Richardson, and Schwager [1987]

Journal of Accounting Research 1996 34(2), 313 open access
Christine I. Wiedman, The Relevance of Characteristics of the Information Environment in the Selection of a Proxy for the Market's Expectations for Earnings: An Extension of Brown, Richardson, and Schwager [1987], Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 34, No. 2 (Autumn, 1996), pp. 313-324

A Theory of Divided Government

Econometrica 1996 64(6), 1311 open access
This paper extends the spatial theory of voting to the case in which policy choices depend upon the interaction between executive and the legislature. Voters are strategic and to analyze equilibrium the authors apply 'coalition proof' type refinements. The model has implications consistent with voting behavior in the United States: (1) split-ticket with some voters choosing one party for the presidency and the other for Congress; (2) for some parameter values, a divided government with different parties controlling the executive and the majority of the legislature; and (3) the mid-term electoral cycle with the party holding the presidency always losing votes in mid-term legislative elections.

Robustness Properties of Inequality Measures

Econometrica 1996 64(1), 77 open access
Inequality measures are often used to summarize information about empirical income distributions. However the resulting picture of the distribution and of changes in the distribution can be severely distorted if the data are contaminated. The nature of this distortion will in general depend upon the underlying properties of the inequality measure. This issue is investigated theoretically using a technique based on the influence function, and the magnitude of the effect is illustrated using a simulation. Both direct nonparametric estimation from the sample, and indirect estimation using a parametric model are considered; in the latter case the application of a robust estimation procedure is demonstrated. The results are applied to two micro-data examples.

The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry

Econometrica 1996 64(6), 1263 open access
Technological change and deregulation have caused a major restructuring of the telecommunications equipment industry over the last two decades. We estimate the parameters of a production function for the equipment industry and then use those estimates to analyze the evolution of plant level productivity over this period. The restructuring involved significant entry and exit and large changes in the sizes of incumbents. Since firms' choices on whether to liquidate and on the quantities of inputs demanded should they continue depend on their productivity, we use an equilibrium model to suggest an estimation algorithm that takes into account the relationship between productivity on the one hand. and both input demand and survival on the other. A fully parametric version of the estimation algorithm would be both computationally burdensome and require a host of auxiliary assumptions. So we develop a semi parametric technique which is both consistent with a quite general version of the theoretical framework and easy to use. The algorithm produces markedly different estimates of both production function parameters and of productivity movements than traditional estimation procedures. We find an increase in the rate of industry productivity growth after deregulation. This in spite of the fact there was no increase in the average of the plants' rates of productivity growth, and there was actually a fall in our index of the efficiency of the allocation of variable factors conditional on the existing distribution of fixed factors. Deregulation was, however, followed by a reallocation of capital towards more productive establishments (by a down sizing, often shutdown. of unproductive plants and by disproportionate growth of productive establishments) which more than offset the other factors' negative impacts on aggregate productivity.

Asymptotically Optimal Smoothing with Arch Models

Econometrica 1996 64(3), 561 open access
Suppose an observed time series is generated by a stochastic volatility model-i.e., there is an unobservable state variable controlling the volatility of the innovations in the series. As shown by Nelson (1992), and Nelson and Foster (1994), a misspecified ARCH model will often be able to consistently (as a continuous time limit is approached) estimate the unobserved volatility process, using information in the lagged residuals. This paper shows how to more efficiently estimate such a volatility process using information in both lagged and led residuals. In particular, this paper expands the optimal filtering results of Nelson and Foster (1994) and Nelson (1994) to smoothing.