Knowledge that Transforms

This paper presents a condition equivalent to the existence of a Riskless Shadow Asset that guarantees a minimum return when the asset prices are convex functions of interest rates or other state variables. We apply this lemma to immunize default-free and option-free coupon bonds and reach three main conclusions. First, we give a solution to an old puzzle: why do simple duration matching portfolios work well in empirical studies of immunization even though they are derived in a model inconsistent with equilibrium and shifts on the term structure of interest rates are not parallel, as assumed? Second, we establish a clear distinction between the concepts of immunized and maxmin portfolios. Third, we develop a framework that includes the main results of this literature as special cases. Next, we present a new strategy of immunization that consists in matching duration and minimizing a new linear dispersion measure of immunization risk.

This study tests predictions that pricing multiples on and incremental explanatory power of equity book value (net income) increase (decrease) as financial health decreases. Tests using a sample of 396 bankrupt firms and tests using a larger, pooled sample both yield inferences consistent with predictions. Findings are robust to inclusion of controls for industry, size, return-on-equity, and volatility of equity returns. Equity book value and net income multiples and incremental explanatory power vary predictably across three illustrative industries, selected based on the likely extent of unrecognized intangible assets.

We examine the effect of underwriting relationships on analysts' earnings forecasts and recommendations. Lead and co-underwriter analysts' growth forecasts and recommendations are significantly more favorable than those made by unaffiliated analysts, although their earnings forecasts are not generally greater. Investors respond similarly to lead underwriter and unaffiliated `Strong buy' and `Buy' recommendations, but three-day returns to lead underwriter `Hold' recommendations are significantly more negative than those to unaffiliated `Hold' recommendations. The findings suggest investors expect lead analysts are more likely to recommend `Hold' when `Sell' is warranted. The post-announcement returns following affiliated and unaffiliated analysts' recommendations are not significantly different.

A cross-sectional analysis of cash compensation paid to CEOs of 713 US firms reveals that the sensitivity of compensation to earnings varies directly with earnings persistence. Additional analysis indicates that this sensitivity is greater for cases where executives are approaching retirement. Such evidence suggests the use of earnings persistence to counterbalance adverse consequences of earnings-based contracting with managers who face finite decision horizons.

A model of earnings, cash flows and accruals is developed assuming a random walk sales process, variable and fixed costs, and that the only accruals are accounts receivable and payable, and inventory. The model implies earnings better predict future operating cash flows than current operating cash flows and the difference varies with the operating cash cycle. Also, the model is used to predict serial and cross-correlations of each firm's series. The implications and predictions are tested on a 1337 firm sample over 1963–1992. Both earnings and cash flow forecast implications and correlation predictions are generally consistent with the data.

We show that a model of undifferentiated price competition closely predicts US audit market concentration. Contracting practices, client size distributions and differences in auditor productivity jointly determine audit firms' market shares. In contrast to prior literature, neither quality differences nor economies of scale for larger firms are necessary in our model to explain audit market concentration.

This study examines the usefulness of an analyst-based valuation model in predicting cross-sectional stock returns. We estimate firms' fundamental values (V) using I/B/E/S consensus forecasts and a residual income model. We find that V is highly correlated with contemporaneous stock price, and that the V/P ratio is a good predictor of long-term cross-sectional returns. This effect is not explained by a firm's market beta, B/P ratio, or total market capitalization. In addition, we find errors in consensus analyst earnings forecasts are predictable, and that the predictive power of V/P can be improved by incorporating these errors.

Disclosures, Investments, Periodic performance reports, Private information

This paper provides empirical evidence on the economic value of services provided by independent auditors by analyzing whether auditor association leads to reduced interest rates on revolving credit agreements. Using multivariate regressions, we analyze the relation between interest rates on revolving bank loans to small, private firms and the degree of auditor association with the financial statements provided to the lender,

Mary E. Barth, Greg Clinch, Revalued Financial, Tangible, and Intangible Assets: Associations with Share Prices and Non-Market-Based Value Estimates, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 36, Studies on Enhancing the Financial Reporting Model (1998), pp. 199-233