Knowledge that Transforms

This paper extends the Treynor performance ratio for a single index to the case of multiple indexes. The new measure, called the Generalized Treynor Ratio, preserves the same key geometric and analytical properties of the original Treynor Ratio. The Generalized Treynor Ratio is defined as the abnormal return of a portfolio per unit of premium-weighted average systematic risk, normalized by the premium-weighted averagesystematic risk of the benchmark. Numerical simulations reveal that the portfolio rankings produced with this measure are more precise and more stable than the ones provided by Jensen's alpha and the Information Ratio.

We investigate the way investors react to prior gains/losses. We directly examine investor reactions to different definitions of gains and losses (i.e., overall wealth, paper gains and losses, and realized capital gains and losses) and investigate how gains and losses in one category of wealth (e.g., real estate) affect holdings in other categories (e.g., financial assets). We show that investors change their holdings of risky assets as a function of both financial and real estate gains. Prior gains increase risk-taking, while prior losses reduce it. To interpret our results, we consider and compare three alternative hypotheses of investor behavior: prospect theory, house money effect and standard utility theory with decreasing risk aversion. Our evidence fails to support loss aversion, pointing in the direction of the house money effect or standard utility theory. Investors consider wealth in its entirety, and risk-taking in financial markets is affected by gains/losses in overall wealth, financial wealth, and real estate wealth.

Combining survey responses and trading records of clients of a German retail broker, this paper examines some of the causes for the apparent failure to buy and hold a well-diversified portfolio. The subjective investor attributes gleaned from the survey help explain the variation in actual portfolio and trading choices. Self-reported risk aversion is the single most important determinant of both portfolio diversification and turnover; other things equal, investors who report being more risk tolerant hold less diversified portfolios and trade more aggressively. Less experienced investors similarly tend to churn poorly diversified portfolios. The effect of perceived knowledge on portfolio choice is less clear cut; holding other attributes constant, investors who think themselves knowledgeable about financial securities indeed hold better diversified portfolios, but those who think themselves more knowledgeable than the average investor churn their portfolios more.

In the 1990s Argentina embarked on one of the largest privatization campaigns in the world as part of a structural reform plan. The program included the privatization of local water companies covering approximately 30 percent of the country’s municipalities. Since clean water and sewage treatment are critical to control the spread of infectious and parasitic diseases; access expansions, quality improvements, and tariff changes associated to privatization may have affected health outcomes. Using the variation in ownership of water provision across time and space generated by the privatization process, we find that child mortality fell 5 to 7 percent in areas that privatized their water services overall; and that the effect was largest in the poorest areas. In fact, we estimate that child mortality fell by 24 percent in the poorest municipalities. These results suggest that the privatization of water services prevented approximately 375 deaths of young children per year. We check the robustness of these estimates using cause specific mortality. While privatization is associated with significant reductions in deaths from infectious

People continue to live in many big American cities, because in those cities housing costs less than new construction. While cities may lose their productive edge, their houses remain and population falls only when housing depreciates. This paper presents a simple durable housing model of urban decline with several implications which document: (1) urban growth rates are leptokurtotic --cities grow more quickly than they decline, (2) city growth rates are highly persistent, especially amount declining cities,

Using a Monte Carlo simulation, this study addresses the question of how traditional risk measures and immunization strategies perform when the term structure evolves in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) manner. The results suggest that, for immunization purposes, immunization strategies and portfolio formation strategies are more important than interest rate risk measures. The performance of immunization strategies depends more on the transaction costs and the holding period than on the risk measures. Moreover, the immunization performance of bullet and barbell portfolios is not very sensitive to interest rate risk measures.

This paper examines the potential benefits of security fungibility by conducting the first comprehensive analysis of global bonds. Unlike other debt securities, global bonds' fungibility allows them to be placed simultaneously in bond markets around the world; they trade, clear, and settle efficiently within as well as across markets. We test the impact of issuing these securities on firms' cost of capital, issuing costs, liquidity, and shareholder wealth. Using a sample of 230 global bond issues by 94 companies from the U.S. and abroad over the period 1996–2003, we find that firms lower their cost of (debt) capital by issuing these fungible securities. We also document that the stock price reaction to the announcement of global bond issuance is positive and significant, while comparable domestic and eurobond issues over the same time period are associated with insignificant changes in shareholder wealth.

This paper investigates to what extent globalization and regional integration lead to increasing equity market interdependence. I focus on Western Europe, as this region has gone through a unique period of economic, financial, and monetary integration. More specifically, I quantify the magnitude and time-varying nature of volatility spillovers from the aggregate European (EU) and U.S. market to 13 local European equity markets. To account for time-varying integration, I use a regime-switching model to allow the shock sensitivities to change over time. I find regime switches to be both statistically and economically important. Both the EU and U.S. shock spillover intensity increased substantially over the 1980s and 1990s, though the rise is more pronounced for EU spillovers. Shock spillover intensities increased most strongly in the second half of the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. I show that increased trade integration, equity market development, and low inflation contribute to the increase in EU shock spillover intensity. I also find evidence for contagion from the U.S. market to a number of local European equity markets during periods of high world market volatility.

Relying on a simple general equilibrium model of the term structure, we show that both nominal yields and real consumption growth rates can be affine in the unobservable state variables. We can then express real consumption growth rates in terms of nominal yields rather than the unobservable state variables with the coefficients of the resultant forecasting relation being endogenously determined by the term structure model. Using term structure data over the 1985 to 2000 sample period, the empirical evidence is consistent with our model more accurately predicting real consumption growth rates than a regression model based on the term spread.

Using disaggregated panel data, we examine how firms change trade credit in response to a monetary tightening. We find that both accounts payable and accounts receivable increase with tighter monetary policy, implying that trade credit helps firms absorb the effect of a credit contraction. Further, both S&P 500 firms and a comparison group of smaller firms increase net trade credit (accounts receivable minus payable), making up for the reduced liquidity associated with tighter policy. However, we find no evidence that large firms play this role more actively than smaller firms.