Knowledge that Transforms

We study the allocation of interest rate risk within the European banking sector using novel data. Banks’ exposure to interest rate risk is small on aggregate, but heterogeneous in the cross-section. Contrary to conventional wisdom, net worth is increasing in interest rates for approximately half of the institutions in our sample. Cross-sectional variation in banks’ exposures is driven by cross-country differences in loan-rate fixation conventions for mortgages. Banks use derivatives to partially hedge on-balance-sheet exposures. Residual exposures imply that changes in interest rates have redistributive effects within the banking sector.Received October 31, 2017; editorial decision August 30, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan.

We study the joint portfolio and information choice problem of institutional investors who are concerned about their performance relative to a benchmark. Benchmarking influences information choices through two distinct economic mechanisms. First, benchmarking reduces the number of shares in investors’ portfolios that are sensitive to information. Hence, the value of private information declines. Second, benchmarking limits investors’ willingness to speculate. This not only reduces the value of private information but also adversely affects information aggregation. In equilibrium, investors acquire less information and informational efficiency declines. As a result, return volatility increases, and less-benchmarked institutional investors outperform more-benchmarked ones. Received May 31, 2017; editorial decision July 4, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished supplementary code, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

We develop a model of government portfolio choice in which the government chooses the scale of risky projects in the presence of market failures and tax distortions. These frictions motivate the government to manage social risk and fiscal risk. Social risk management favors programs that ameliorate market failures in bad times. Fiscal risk management makes unattractive programs involving large government outlays when other government programs also require large outlays. These two risk management motives often conflict. Using the model, we explore how the attractiveness of different financial stability programs varies with the government’s fiscal burden and characteristics of the economy. Received December 19, 2016; editorial decision June 28, 2018 by Editor Itay Goldstein.

Our model shows that when regulation is based on credit ratings, banks with low charter value maximize shareholder value by minimizing capital and selecting identically rated loans and bonds with the highest systematic risk. This regulatory arbitrage is possible if the credit spreads on same-rated loans and bonds are greater when their systematic risk (debt beta) is higher. We empirically confirm this relationship between credit spreads, ratings, and debt betas. We also show that banks with lower capital select syndicated loans with higher debt betas and credit spreads. Banks with lower charter value choose overall assets with higher systematic risk. Received July 27, 2016; editorial decision May 29, 2018 by Editor Itay Goldstein.

We exploit a variation in organizational hierarchy induced by a reorganization plan implemented in roughly 2,000 bank branches in India. We do so to investigate how organizational hierarchy affects the allocation of credit. We find that increased hierarchization of a branch induces credit rationing, reduces loan performance, and generates standardization in loan contracts. Additionally, we find that hierarchical structures perform better in environments characterized by a high degree of corruption, highlighting the benefits of hierarchies in restraining rent-seeking activities. Overall, our results are consistent with the view that valuable information may be lost in hierarchical structures. Received May 4, 2018; editorial decision April 30, 2018 by Editor Itay Goldstein.

Technology-based (“FinTech”) lenders increased their market share of U.S. mortgage lending from 2% to 8% from 2010 to 2016. Using loan-level data on mortgage applications and originations, we show that FinTech lenders process mortgage applications 20% faster than other lenders, controlling for observable characteristics. Faster processing does not come at the cost of higher defaults. FinTech lenders adjust supply more elastically than do other lenders in response to exogenous mortgage demand shocks. In areas with more FinTech lending, borrowers refinance more, especially when it is in their interest. We find no evidence that FinTech lenders target borrowers with low access to finance.Received June 1, 2017; editorial decision November 5, 2018 by Editor Wei Jiang.

We propose a novel identification strategy for estimating the effects of business group affiliation. We study two-firm business groups, some of which split up during the sample period, leaving some firms as stand-alone firms. We instrument for stand-alone status using shocks to the industry of the other group firm. We find that firms that become stand-alone reduce leverage and investment. Consistent with collateral cross-pledging, the effects are more pronounced when the other firm had high tangibility. Consistent with capital misallocation in groups, the reduction in leverage is stronger in firms that had low (high) profitability (leverage) relative to industry peers. Received July 3, 2017; editorial decision April 7, 2018 by Editor Wei Jiang.

I exploit information in the cross-section of bid-ask spreads to develop a new measure of extreme event risk. Spreads embed tail risk information because liquidity providers require compensation for the possibility of sharp changes in asset values. I show that simple regressions relating spreads and trading volume to factor betas recover this information and deliver high-frequency tail risk estimates for common factors in stock returns. My methodology disentangles financial and aggregate market risks during the 2007–2008 financial crisis; quantifies jump risks associated with Federal Open Market Committee announcements; and anticipates an extreme liquidity shock before the 2010 Flash Crash. Received April 27, 2016; editorial decision August 10, 2018 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Launched in Summer 2012, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program indirectly recapitalized European banks through its positive impact on periphery sovereign bonds. However, the stability reestablished in the banking sector did not fully translate into economic growth. We document zombie lending by banks that remained weakly capitalized even post-OMT. In turn, firms receiving loans used these funds not to undertake real economic activity, such as employment and investment, but to build cash reserves. Creditworthy firms in industries with a high zombie firm prevalence significantly suffered from this credit misallocation, which further slowed the economic recovery. Received March 21, 2018; editorial decision November 13, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan.

We show that close votes on shareholder proposals are disproportionately more likely to be won by management than by shareholder activists. Using a sample of shareholder proposals from 2003 to 2016, we uncover a large and discontinuous drop in the density of voting results at the 50% threshold. We document similar patterns for say on pay votes and director elections. Our findings imply that shareholder influence through voting is limited by managerial opposition. It also follows that one cannot routinely use an RDD to identify the causal effects of changes in corporate governance generated by shareholder votes. Received May 29, 2017; editorial decision August 21, 2018 by Editor Itay Goldstein.