Knowledge that Transforms

We test the luxury consumption hypothesis of Ait-Sahalia, Parker, and Yogo (2004), using a unique international art price, import/export flow, and stock market data set. We find that the demand for art by Japanese collectors is positively correlated with art prices and Japanese stock prices. This correlation is magnified during the “bubble period” of the Japanese economy (the mid-1980s to the early 1990s) and gains even further strength for works of art typically favored by Japanese collectors. Our results suggest that Japanese investors (or Japanese asset markets) indeed affect international art prices—especially during the bubble period and its aftermath.

Eleven percent of the largest public U.S. firms are headed by the CEO who founded the firm. Founder-CEO firms differ systematically from successor-CEO firms with respect to firm valuation, investment behavior, and stock market performance. Founder-CEO firms invest more in research and development, have higher capital expenditures, and make more focused mergers and acquisitions. An equal-weighted investment strategy that had invested in founder-CEO firms from 1993 to 2002 would have earned a benchmark-adjusted return of 8.3% annually. The excess return is robust; after controlling for a wide variety of firm characteristics, CEO characteristics, and industry affiliation, the abnormal return is still 4.4% annually. The implications of the investment behavior and stock market performance of founder-CEO firms are discussed.

This paper estimates an internally consistent structural model that imposes cross-sectional restrictions on the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates, inflation, and output growth. Distinct from previous term structure settings, this model introduces both time-varying central tendencies and a stochastic conditional mean of output growth. The estimation of the model, which is based on U.S. data over a 1960 to 2005 sample period, provides reliable estimates for the implicit term structures of real interest rates, expected inflation rates, and inflation risk premia, as well as for expectations of macroeconomic variables. The model has better out-of-sample forecasting properties than a number of alternative models, and it contradicts the puzzling evidence that during the “Great Moderation” in inflation subsequent to the mid-1980s, the forecasting ability of structural models deteriorated with respect to atheoretic statistical models.

We uncover a positive stock market risk-return tradeoff after controlling for the covariance of market returns with the value premium. Fama and French (1996) conjecture that the value premium proxies for investment opportunities; therefore, by ignoring it, early specifications suffer from an omitted variable problem that causes a downward bias in the risk-return tradeoff estimation. We also document a positive relation between the value premium and its conditional variance, and the estimated conditional value premium is strongly countercyclical. The latter evidence supports the view that value is riskier than growth in bad times, when the price of risk is high.

Recently, there has been rapid growth in the assets managed by “hedged mutual funds”—mutual funds mimicking hedge fund strategies. We examine the performance of these funds relative to hedge funds and traditional mutual funds. Despite using similar trading strategies, hedged mutual funds underperform hedge funds. We attribute this finding to hedge funds’ lighter regulation and better incentives. Conversely, hedged mutual funds outperform traditional mutual funds. Notably, this superior performance is driven by managers with experience implementing hedge fund strategies. Our findings have implications for investors seeking hedge-fund-like payoffs at a lower cost and within the comfort of a regulated environment.

Variables that in theory determine credit spreads have limited explanatory power in existing empirical work on corporate bond data. We investigate the linear relationship between theoretical determinants of default risk and default swap spreads. We find that estimated coefficients for a minimal set of theoretical determinants of default risk are consistent with theory and are significant statistically and economically. Volatility and leverage have substantial explanatory power in univariate and multivariate regressions. A principal component analysis of residuals and spreads indicates limited evidence for a residual common factor, confirming that the theoretical variables explain a significant amount of the variation in the data.

Firms reduce leverage following credit rating downgrades. In the year following a downgrade, downgraded firms issue approximately 1.5%–2.0% less net debt relative to net equity as a percentage of assets compared to other firms. This relationship persists within an empirical model of target leverage behavior. The effect of a downgrade is larger at downgrades to a speculative grade rating and if commercial paper access is affected. In particular, firms downgraded to speculative are about twice as likely to reduce debt as other firms. Rating upgrades do not affect subsequent capital structure activity, suggesting that firms target minimum rating levels.

We develop a measure (based on the relative slopes of the demand and supply schedules) quantifying the asymmetric presence of liquidity traders in the market: a steeper slope of the demand (supply) schedule indicates a concentration of liquidity traders on the demand (supply) side. Using the opening session of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, we demonstrate the predictive power of our measure. Consistent with theory, we find that the concentration of liquidity traders on the demand (supply) side is negatively (positively) correlated with future returns. We find that liquidity traders are likely to arrive at the market together (commonality).

We investigate the joint dynamics of returns and trading volume of 556 foreign stocks cross-listed on U.S. markets. Heterogeneous-agent trading models rationalize how trading volume reflects the quality of traders’ information signals and how it helps to disentangle whether returns are associated with portfolio-rebalancing trades or information-motivated trades. Based on these models, we hypothesize that returns in the home (U.S.) market on high-volume days are more likely to continue to spill over into the U.S. (home) market for those cross-listed stocks subject to the risk of greater informed trading. Our empirical evidence provides support for these predictions, which confirms the link between information, trading volume, and international stock return comovements that has eluded previous empirical investigations.

Representative agent models are inconsistent with existing empirical evidence for steep demand curves for individual stocks. This paper resolves the puzzle by proposing that stock prices are instead set by two separate classes of investors. While the market portfolio is still priced by individual investors based on their collective risk aversion, those individual investors also delegate part of their wealth to active money managers, who use that capital to price stocks in the cross section. In equilibrium, the fee charged by active managers has to equal the before-fee alpha they earn. This endogenously determines the amount of active capital and the slopes of demand curves. A calibration of the model reveals that demand curves can be steep enough to match the magnitude of many empirical findings, including the price effects for stocks entering or leaving the S&P 500 index.