Knowledge that Transforms

We experimentally study decentralized one-to-one matching markets with transfers. We vary the information available to participants, complete or incomplete, and the surplus structure, supermodular or submodular. Several insights emerge. First, while markets often culminate in efficient matchings, stability is more elusive, reflecting the difficulty of arranging attendant transfers. Second, incomplete information and submodularity present hurdles to efficiency and especially stability; their combination drastically diminishes stability's likelihood. Third, matchings form ``from the top down'' in complete-information supermodular markets, but exhibit many more and less-obviously ordered offers otherwise. Last, participants' market positions matter far more than their dynamic bargaining styles for outcomes.

We show that the emergence of new economic opportunities that draw women away from their traditional domestic roles has significantly influenced the adoption of religious veiling. We measure the prevalence of veiling among young women across Indonesia's districts for more than two decades by hand-coding around a quarter million photographs attached to Indonesia's public high school registers. To establish causality, we exploit exogenous variation generated by international demand for Indonesia's products, interacted with the gender and sectoral composition of local industries. Districts exposed to stronger positive economic shocks---and thus greater economic opportunities for women---exhibit higher rates of veiling adoption. Our findings suggest that veiling facilitates young women's participation in formal labor markets while safeguarding their personal and social image in society.

We estimate the impact of public pension incentives on labor supply far from the normal retirement age by exploiting Poland's switch from a Defined Benefit to a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) scheme. This reform created a sharp cohort-based discontinuity in the link between current pension contributions and future benefits. Using this discontinuity and the universe of taxpayers, we estimate an employment elasticity with respect to the net return to work of 0.51 for men at ages 51-54. We estimate a lifecycle model to match these responses and discuss the broader implications of the reform. The shift to NDC reallocates work incentives over the lifecycle, strengthening incentives at younger ages, when labor supply is relatively inelastic, and weakening them at older ages, when labor supply is more elastic. This reallocation of work incentives tends to reduce aggregate lifecycle labor supply, which highlights the advantage of targeting pension incentives towards ages at which labor supply is most responsive.

This study examines the relation between taxes and business investment using the setting of an unexpected and economically significant federal corporate income tax rate increase in Canada known colloquially as the Halloween Massacre of 2006. This tax increase only applies to firms organized as income trusts, but not corporations. Using a difference‐in‐differences design, we find that investment by income trusts decreases about 0.67% for each 1 percentage point increase in the tax rate, translating into over $10 billion in reduced aggregate investment. In decomposing total investment, our results reveal that capital expenditures exhibit an immediate decrease while there is a delayed decrease in acquisition activity. Our results are concentrated in high‐investment income trusts that are most sensitive to the link between investment and taxes. Our study helps resolve conflicting prior results by providing robust evidence that tax increases have an economically significant and negative causal effect on business investment.

We study opinion dynamics in a social network consisting of two groups. Agents update their opinions by conforming to members of their own group while rejecting the views of the opposing group (affective polarization), and by listening to a media outlet that may provide biased information. We characterize the long-run opinions and identify when affective polarization and media bias lead to ideological polarization, persistent disagreement, or failures of learning. We also derive when information interventions or censorship improve the accuracy of average opinions and reduce disagreement, and when they backfire: better information helps only under specific media bias configurations and when directed to the agents we identify as most effective at propagating it through the network.

This paper studies asset pricing under expectations‐based reference‐dependent preferences in a general equilibrium framework. We show that reference‐dependent preferences can generate self‐fulfilling risk panics, producing sentiment‐driven asset price fluctuations through a feedback loop between current prices and perceived future downside risk—dynamics impossible under standard expected utility. The model helps explain empirical puzzles including (i) excess volatility, (ii) asymmetric volatility, (iii) asymmetric sentiment over the business cycle, (iv) excess asset price comovement, and (v) weak correlations between stock returns and economic fundamentals, alongside a sizable equity premium. Additional empirical evidence based on closed‐end fund discounts and quantitative analysis support the theory.

We study how firm-level carbon emissions affect bank lending and real outcomes in a sample of global firms with syndicated loans. We exploit bank-level climate commitments as firm-level shocks to lending relationships, using firms' prior credit exposures to identify credit supply effects. Firms with higher emissions that previously borrowed from committed banks receive less bank credit. Evidence from lending volumes, prices, and within-firm-time loan-level data indicates a supply-side shift away from high-emission firms, not explained by borrower risk. Affected firms reduce debt, leverage, size, and investment, yet we find no reduction in future emissions, instead documenting evidence consistent with greenwashing.

This study investigates how audit firm-level spatial licensing requirements affect audit market competition and audit quality, focusing on small (triennially inspected) audit firms, for which licensing frictions are most relevant. Exploiting the staggered state-level adoption of CPA firm mobility provisions that remove spatial licensing barriers, we find that adoption increases competition among small audit firms, as reflected by lower market concentration and greater first-time entry by small out-of-state auditors. Firm mobility adoption also improves audit quality, as indicated by a lower likelihood of client misstatements. These effects are concentrated in less competitive audit markets and among auditors with higher PCAOB deficiency rates. Audit quality improvements extend to both incumbent auditors and new out-of-state entrants, and we find no evidence of audit fee discounting. Overall, our results suggest that removing spatial licensing barriers fosters a more competitive small audit firm market while improving audit outcomes, without increasing audit costs.

This study examines whether Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests to the Securities and Exchange Commission convey value-relevant information about publicly traded firms and whether sophisticated investors trade on that information. Our empirical analysis reveals heterogeneous value relevance associated with different types of requests. Specifically, requests submitted by proxy agents to probe for ongoing investigations as well as anonymous requests are negatively correlated with future returns, while requests from institutional investors and intellectual property entities are associated with positive future returns. Our results also support the direct-trading hypothesis, showing institutional investors and short sellers trade on FOIA-obtained information. Our findings add to the information-acquisition literature by highlighting the heterogeneous value signals in FOIA requests, particularly the negative value signals.