Knowledge that Transforms

Three exchange-rate regimes--a float, a one-sided peg, and a cooperative peg--are evaluated and compared in terms of efficiency and welfare levels. The framework of analysis embodies country-specific monies, with the money of each country being used to transact in its commodity markets and its currency-denominated bonds. Welfare levels depend only on consumption levels. In the presence of perfect foresight all equilibrium allocations are Pareto efficient. In a floating exchange-rate regime the perfect foresight equilibrium allocation coincides with an equilibrium of a costless barter economy. The same result holds in a one-sided peg if the pegging country's exchange-rate stabilizing authority breaks even over time. In a cooperative peg regime there is a different equilibrium allocation for each combination of exchange-rate levels and monetary policies. Problems of policy coordination and conflicts in desired monetary policies are discussed.

The theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases. Under plausible conditions, the temporary case involves an output response that is positive, less than one-to-one with the change in government purchases, and larger than that generated by an equal-sized, but permanent, shift in purchases. The equilibrium real rate of return rises in the temporary case, but changes little in the permanent one. Defense purchases are divided empirically into "permanent" and "temporary" components by considering the role of (temporary) wars. No temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated. Empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases. The results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally sup- portive of the theory.

This paper analyzes compensation schemes which pay according to an individual's ordinal rank in an organization rather than his output level. When workers are risk neutral, it is shown that wages based upon rank induce the same efficient allocation of resources as an incentive reward scheme based on individual output levels. Under some circumstances, risk-averse workers actually prefer to be paid on the basis of rank. In addition, if workers are heterogeneous inability, low-quality workers attempt to contaminate high-quality firms, resulting in adverse selection. However, if ability is known in advance, a competitive handicapping structure exists which allows all workers to compete efficiently in the same organization.

One argument used to justify a rate of discount for benefit-cost analysis below the market rate is based on a divergence of private and collective behavior known as the “isolation paradox.” In this paper we reexamine this argument using a three-period general equilibrium model incorporating the intergenerational structure of benevolence assumed by earlier writers. We show that in this model the appropriate rate of discount is the market rate, regardless of the existence of the isolation paradox. In the absence of other market distortions, no shadow pricing of capital inputs is necessary in the calculation of net present value.

This paper extends the experimental examination of posted offer auction markets to a market with intertemporal speculators. Previous experimental results demonstrate that posted offer markets induce inefficiencies, and also an income distribution that works to the disadvantage of those facing posted prices. The results of this paper suggest that these properties of the posted offer institution hold in the presence of intertemporal speculation.

The well-known free-rider hypothesis is examined experimentally to see (i) whether individuals behave systematically as free riders when systematic incentives to do so are created, and (ii) the extent to which free riding actually occurs. Though the experiment's participants behaved in accordance with the hypothesis, the quantitative extent to which such behavior occurred was rather modest. From this it may be concluded that the free-rider hypothesis as presently stated indicates an incompleteness in standard public microeconomics rather than providing a description of the real world.

Partial or total durability characterizes a large class of exhaustible resources. We show that Hotelling's r-percent rule will apply to a durable resource produced in a competitive market, but will not apply if the resource is produced in a monopolistic market. However, the r-percent rule does not mean that price is steadily rising. We show that in general the competitive market price will fall initially as the stock in circulation increases, and later will rise as the stock decreases and eventually depreciates toward zero after production ceases. Accounting for durability may thus help explain the U-shaped long-term price profiles observed for many resources.