Knowledge that Transforms

Band-pass filters are useful in a wide range of economic contexts. This paper develops a set of approximate band-pass filters and illustrates their application to measuring the business-cycle component of macroeconomic activity. Detailed comparisons are made with several alternative filters commonly used for extracting business-cycle components.

In spite of the large and growing importance of the employer size-wage premium, previous attempts to account for this premium using observable worker or employer characteristics have had limited success. The problem is that, while most theoretical explanations for the size-wage premium are based on the matching of employers and employees, previous empirical work has relied on either worker surveys with little information about the employer, or establishment surveys with little information about the workers. In contrast, this study uses the newly created Worker-Establishment Characteristic Database, which contains linked employer-employee data for a large sample of U.S. manufacturing workers and establishments, to examine seven explanations for the employer size-wage premium. A number of the explanations can account for some of the observed cross-sectional variation in worker wages. However, none of the explanations can fully account for the employer size-wage premium. In the end there remains a large, significant, and unexplained premium paid to workers of large employers.

This paper estimates economic models of the determinants of state benefit levels in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program using 1969–1992 data. These models have been extensively researched; however, the existing literature has produced an unacceptably wide range of estimates. Using alternative econometric procedures, this paper systematically examines both the specification assumptions underlying previous analyses as well as several additional specification issues. It is, therefore, able to replicate and reconcile estimates from previous studies and to provide updated, consensus estimates of the demand for welfare generosity. It finds that changes in the average level of income within states have small but statistically significant positive effects on benefits with the confidence bounds on the elasticity extending from 0.11 to 0.82. Changes in the effective price of redistribution are found to have, at most, weak negative effects with elasticities in the range of -0.14 to 0.02. These results are used to evaluate the effects of block grant provisions in the recently enacted welfare reform legislation.

Theory suggests that vertical disintegration should be greater in areas where industries localize. This paper provides some evidence that this implication is true for the U.S. manufacturing sector. Purchased inputs as a percent of the value of output is used as a measure of vertical disintegration. To measure the localization of industry, for each manufacturing plant the amount of employment in neighboring plants in the same industry is determined.

We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions under which a technique of density forecast “calibration” can be used to improve deficient density forecasts, and we show how the calibration method can be used to generate good density forecasts from econometric models, even when the conditional density is unknown. Finally, motivated by recent advances in financial risk management, we provide a detailed application to multivariate high-frequency exchange rate density forecasts.

The effects of goal setting and task interdependence on both the level of and variance in performance are examined using a laboratory, resource allocation task. The results show, consistent with existing research, main effects for goal setting and task interdependence on the level of performance, but no goal setting by task interaction effect as hypothesised. The results also show that an increase in task interdependence increases performance variance but that goal setting reduces it with important implications for budget setting.

Prior research reports that the memories of working paper preparers may be biased toward evidence consistent with their prior decisions, but that reviewers exposed to the same set of evidence can mitigate the bias by evaluating inconsistent evidence. This study tests whether audit seniors’ decisions bias their ability to recognize evidence to document in working papers, and whether biased documentation affects the decisions of audit partners who are exposed only to the subset of evidence that seniors recognize and document. Experiment 1 confirms that audit seniors’ prior decisions bias their memories for evidence to document in working papers, and also creates materials for experiment 2. Experiment 2 offers a new insight: when exposed only to the evidence that seniors recognize and document, partners make decisions biased in the direction of the seniors’ decisions, since not all of the inconsistent evidence is documented. Experimental procedures controlled for four alternative interpretations: justification, evidence order, recency, and primacy.