Knowledge that Transforms

For the last ten years environmentalists and the trade policy community have engaged in a heated debate over the environmental consequences of liberalized trade. The debate was originally fueled by negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Uruguay round of GATT negotiations, both of which occurred at a time when concerns over global warming, species extinction and industrial pollution were rising. Recently it has been intensified by the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and proposals for future rounds of trade negotiations. The debate has often been unproductive. It has been hampered by the lack of a common language and also suffered from little recourse to economic theory and empirical evidence. The purpose of this essay is set out what we currently know about the environmental consequences of economic growth and international trade. We critically review both theory and empirical work to answer three basic questions. What do we know about the relationship between international trade, economic growth and the environment? How can this evidence help us evaluate ongoing policy debates? Where do we go from here?

Experimental economists are leaving the reservation. They are recruiting subjects in the field rather than in the classroom, using field goods rather than induced valuations, and using field context rather than abstract terminology in instructions. We argue that there is something methodologically fundamental behind this trend. Field experiments differ from laboratory experiments in many ways. Although it is tempting to view field experiments as simply less controlled variants of laboratory experiments, we argue that to do so would be to seriously mischaracterize them. What passes for “control” in laboratory experiments might in fact be precisely the opposite if it is artificial to the subject or context of the task. We propose six factors that can be used to determine the field context of an experiment: the nature of the subject pool, the nature of the information that the subjects bring to the task, the nature of the commodity, the nature of the task or trading rules applied, the nature of the stakes, and the environment that subjects operate in.

This paper examines the importance of format in aid programs, focusing on state appropriations to public postsecondary institutions. These funds subsidize costs for in-state students, but they may also influence choices between institutions due to their in-kind format. Using the conditional logistic choice model and extensive match-specific information, the paper approximates the choice between nearly 2700 college options to examine the effect of several dissimilar state systems. The results suggest that the level and distribution pattern of subsidies strongly affect decisions. If the aid could instead be applied to any in-state college, up to 29% more students would prefer to attend private four-year colleges.

This paper develops a model of intrahousehold allocation with endogenous fertility, which captures the relationship between birth order and investment in children. It shows that a birth order effect in intrahouse hold allocation can arise even without assumptions about parental preferences for specific birth orders of children or genetic endowments varying by birth order. The important contribution is that fertility is treated as endogenous, a possibility that other models of intrahousehold allocation have ignored. The implications of the model are that children with higher birth orders (that is, who are born later) have an advantage over siblings with lower birth orders, and that parents who are inequality-averse will not have more than one child. The model furthermore shows that not taking account of the endogeneity of fertility when analyzing intrahousehold allocation may seriously bias the results. The effects of a child's birth order on its human capital accumulation are analyzed using a longitudinal data set from the Philippines that covers a very long period. We examine the effects of birth order on both number of hours in school during education and completed education. The results for both are consistent with the predictions of the model.

Utilizing a utility-maximizing, Roy-type, discrete choice model of worker location in Canadian provinces and U.S. states that incorporates returns to skill, amenities, fixed costs, distance, language, and border effects, we find that individuals with higher skills migrate to areas with higher returns and that the 49th parallel attenuates migration. Simulations indicate that equalizing returns in the two countries has a modest effect on cross-country migration; however, reductions in border effects tend to have large nonlinear effects on it. Our results confirm the qualitative results of previous research emphasizing the importance of returns to skill and border effects in migration decisions.

Most panel data studies of intertemporal labor supply assume classical measurement error. Recent validation studies refute this assumption. In this study I address nonclassical measurement error explicitly. I use data on males from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Validation Study to purge measurement error from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. I find a large amount of predictable wage variation in the data, even after allowing for measurement error. However, there is almost no labor supply response to these predictable wage changes. Therefore, failure to control for nonclassical measurement error cannot explain the low estimated labor supply elasticities in other papers.

A major question in the literature on the classical gold standard concerns the efficiency of international arbitrage. Authors have examined efficiency by looking at the spread of the gold points, gold point violations, the flow of gold, or by tests of various asset market criteria, including speculative efficiency and interest arbitrage. These studies have suffered from many limitations, both methodological and empirical. We offer a new methodology for measuring market integration based on nonlinear theoretical models and threshold autoregressions. We also compile a new, highfrequency series of continuous daily data from 1879 to 1913. We can derive reasonable econometric estimates of the implied gold points and price dynamics. The changes in these measures over time provide an insight into the evolution of market integration.

Utilizing data on research proposals submitted to the National Science Foundation (NSF) Economics Program over a 5-year period, this paper examines whether the social capital stock of grant applicants enhances their access to research resources by increasing the probability of being awarded a research grant. We estimate latent-variable specifications of the NSF decision to fund a research proposal. Our results show that, given ability, being a National Bureau of Economic Research associate increases the probability of a research proposal being funded. We interpret this as being consistent with the hypothesized causal effects of social capital.

Coe and Helpman, among others, report positive and equivalent R&D spillovers across groups of countries. However, the nature of their econometric tests does not address the heterogeneity of knowledge diffusion across countries. We empirically examine these issues in a sample of 10 OECD countries by extending both the time span and the coverage of R&D activities in the data set. We find that the elasticity of total factor productivity with respect to domestic and foreign R&D stocks is extremely heterogeneous across countries and that data cannot be pooled. Thus, panel estimates conceal important cross-country differences. The United States appears to be a net loser in international R&D spillovers. Our interpretation is that when competitors catch up technologically, they challenge U.S. market shares and investments worldwide.

In the instrumental variables (IV) regression model, weak instruments can lead to bias in estimators and size distortion in hypothesis tests. This paper examines how weak instruments affect the identification of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) through the linearized Euler equation. Conventional IV methods result in an empirical puzzle that the EIS is significantly less than 1 but its reciprocal is not different from 1. This paper shows that weak instruments can explain the puzzle and reports valid confidence intervals for the EIS using pivotal statistics. The EIS is less than 1 and not significantly different from 0 for eleven developed countries.