Knowledge that Transforms

The US suffers from persistent regional disparities in employment rates. In principle, these disparities should be eliminated by population mobility. Can immigration fulfill this role? Remarkably, since 1960, I show that new migrants from abroad account for 40% of the average population response to these disparities - which vastly exceeds their historic share of gross migratory flows. But despite this, immigration does not significantly accelerate local population adjustment (or reduce local employment rate disparities), as it crowds out the contribution from internal mobility. Indeed, this crowd-out can help account for the concurrent decline in internal mobility. Finally, I attribute the “excess” foreign contribution to a local snowballing effect, driven by persistent local shocks and the dynamics of migrant enclaves. This mechanism raises challenges to the (pervasive) application of migrant enclaves as an instrument for foreign inflows. But rather than abandoning the instrument, I offer an empirical strategy (motivated by my model) to overcome these challenges; and I demonstrate its efficacy.

Class size reduction mandates are frequent and invariably justified by studies reporting positive effects on student achievement. Yet other studies report no effects, and the literature as a whole awaits correction for potential publication bias. Moreover, if identification drives results systematically, the relevance of individual studies will vary. We build a sample of 1,767 estimates collected from 62 studies and for each estimate codify 42 factors reflecting estimation context. We employ recently developed nonlinear techniques for publication bias correction and Bayesian model averaging techniques that address model uncertainty. The results suggest publication bias among studies featured in top five economics journals, but not elsewhere. The implied class size effect is zero for all identification approaches except Tennessee's Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio project. The effect remains zero for disadvantaged students and across subjects, school types, and countries.

We synthesize the literature on economic epidemiology, the interdisciplinary field that draws on the ideas and methods of economics to analyze individual behavior, aggregate disease dynamics, and public policy during infectious disease epidemics. We cover the main models of individual behavior during epidemics, related econometric evidence, and models of disease dynamics appropriate for the analysis of a range of infectious diseases. We outline modeling approaches to a range of control measures including non-pharmaceutical interventions such as stay-at-home mandates, quarantines, and sheltering, and pharmaceutical interventions such as vaccines and treatment. Last, we characterize different types of externalities and heterogeneities and discuss the targeting and implementation of policies through restrictions and incentives. (JEL D62, D91, H51, I12, I18)

Abstract Migrant workers and employers rely on intermediaries to facilitate labor market placements. If information frictions obscure their reputation, however, intermediaries may under-invest in placement quality. Using data on over 1.5 million Sri Lankan migrants to the Gulf region, we examine the effects of a government-run intermediary rating program that publicly revealed ratings two years after it was announced. Prior to the ratings' public release, under-performing intermediaries invest in the rating criteria and place migrants in less abusive and more remunerative employment. Our results suggest the government's threat of quality revelation induced intermediaries to prospectively screen employers and improve placement quality.

Abstract Countries with greater commodity export intensity have more concentrated markets for imported goods. Import market concentration is associated with higher domestic prices, suggesting that markups due to greater concentration outweigh any potential cost efficiency. Tariffs, non-tariff measures, and tariff evasion are mechanisms that concentrate import markets. These results suggest a novel channel for the resource curse stemming from the monopolization of imports.

Abstract We present a statistical test for the hypothesis of (approximate) utility maximization on the basis of nonparametric revealed preference conditions. We take as null hypothesis that the consumer behaves randomly, and we reject this hypothesis only if the data provides sufficient evidence to support the alternative hypothesis of approximate utility maximization. Our statistical test uses a permutation method to operationalize the principle of random consumption behavior. We show that our test (i) is valid for any sample size under the null and (ii) has an asymptotic power of one. We also provide simulated power results and two empirical applications.

Abstract Using administrative labor market data matched to mortality statistics and patient records, we document that negative labor market shocks produce sizable health spillovers in couples. For every 100,000 displaced men, there are 1,100 additional deaths. Of those, 60% accrue to the displaced worker, but 40% are due to excess spousal mortality. We find a stunning gender asymmetry: while male job displacement generates persistent negative health effects, no such dire consequences are observed after a woman’s job loss. We explore several explanations for these patterns: risk sharing through spousal labor supply; earnings losses and public insurance; widowhood; regional mobility and gender roles in the family.

Abstract We evaluate health insurance reclassification risk in the Small Group Market before ACA community rating regulations. We use detailed claims and premiums data from a large insurance company, controlling non parametrically for selection. We find a pass-through of 11% from changes in health risk to changes in premiums, with a stronger equilibrium relationship between the two. The pricing patterns are consistent with the insurer offering “guaranteed renewability” contracts with one-sided pricing commitment. The observed pricing policy adds 55% of the consumer welfare gain from community rating relative to experience rating, with welfare gains limited because of switching across insurance companies.

Abstract This article presents and analyzes an approach to cluster-based inference for dependent data. The primary setting considered here is with spatially indexed data in which the dependence structure of observed random variables is characterized by a known, observed dissimilarity measure over spatial indices. Observations are partitioned into clusters with the use of an unsupervised clustering algorithm applied to the dissimilarity measure. Once the partition into clusters is learned, a cluster-based inference procedure is applied to a statistical hypothesis testing procedure. The procedure proposed in the article allows the number of clusters to depend on the data, which gives researchers a principled method for choosing an appropriate clustering level. The article gives conditions under which the proposed procedure asymptotically attains correct size. A simulation study shows that the proposed procedure attains near nominal size in finite samples in a variety of statistical testing problems with dependent data.

Abstract This paper uses the randomized rollout of a national agricultural extension program in Uganda to study subsistence smallholders' decisions to adopt cash oilseed crops and shift to commercial farming. By eliciting yield and price expectations, we examine how beliefs evolve after the intervention and influence adoption decisions. Our findings indicate that technical and market information significantly raises farmers' expectations, leading to an average 15% increase in oilseed adoption. Results highlight the role of information in shaping beliefs and behavior, and suggest that addressing knowledge gaps and belief misperceptions about crop profitability is crucial for improving technology adoption and agricultural transformation.