Knowledge that Transforms

We analyze the role of bankers on the boards of German non-financial companies for the period from 1994 to 2005. We find that banks that are represented on a firm's board promote their own business as lenders and as M&A advisors. They also seem to act as financial experts who help firms to obtain funding, especially in difficult times. We find little evidence that bankers monitor management and suggest that bankers on the board cause a decline in the valuations of non-financial firms. Banks’ equity ownership declined sharply during our sample period and the German financial system lost some of its formerly distinctive features.

We propose a model for stock price dynamics that explicitly incorporates random waiting times between trades, also known as duration, and show how option prices can be calculated using this model. We use ultra-high-frequency data for blue-chip companies to motivate a particular choice of waiting-time distribution and then calibrate risk-neutral parameters from options data. We also show that the convexity commonly observed in implied volatilities may be explained by the presence of duration between trades. Furthermore, we find that, ceteris paribus, implied volatility decreases in the presence of longer durations, a result consistent with the findings of Engle (2000) and Dufour and Engle (2000) which demonstrates the relationship between levels of activity and volatility for stock prices. Finally, by directly employing information given by time-stamps of trades, our approach provides a direct link between the literature on stochastic time changes and business time (see Clark (1973)) and, at the same time, highlights the link between number and time of arrival of transactions with implied volatility and stochastic volatility models.

Using a broad sample of international corporate bond offerings, we provide evidence that corporate borrowers make opportunistic currency choices, in that they denominate the currency of their bonds in a manner that is inconsistent with a belief in either covered or uncovered interest rate parity. Using firm-level tests, we identify a number of characteristics of firms that engage in opportunistic behavior. We observe that large issuers located in developed markets with investment-grade ratings and low cash flow characterize those firms that are responsive to covered borrowing rate differences across currencies. Corporate responsiveness to uncovered borrowing rate differences appears more general. We observe that although the gains firms achieve through opportunistic currency denomination are economically significant, the yield differential tends to systematically decline after issuance. This finding suggests that opportunistic issuance by corporations may be a primary mechanism for driving covered interest yields toward parity.

We investigate debt restructurings in Germany for a sample of 116 financially distressed companies. About half of the firms succeed in restructuring their debt in a workout while the others file for bankruptcy. Our evidence suggests that firms which have higher leverage, owe more debt to banks, and exhibit higher going concern values are more likely to conduct a workout. Bankruptcy is more likely for firms with deficient lender coordination and a high fraction of collateralized debt. An analysis of stock returns suggests that the market uses similar information to predict workouts. 84% of the bankrupt firms were ultimately liquidated.

This paper investigates the risk versus mispricing explanation of superior returns to contrarian strategies using the interactions between value-to-market indicators and corporate financing transactions that increase or decrease a firm's outstanding equity. Portfolio-level analyses and firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate that the well-documented contrarian profits soar when value stocks which repurchase shares (value repurchasers) and growth stocks which issue shares (growth issuers) are considered. Various risk measures indicate that value repurchasers are not riskier than growth issuers. Furthermore, time-series of realized growth rates, analysts' long-term growth estimates, and sensitivity of portfolio returns to investor sentiment support the misvaluation explanation.

When firms compete in the managerial labor market, the choice of corporate governance by a firm affects, and is affected by, the choice of governance by other firms. Firms with weaker governance offer managers more generous incentive compensation, which induces firms with good governance to also overpay their management. Due to this externality, overall level of governance in the economy can be inefficiently low. Poor governance can in fact be employed by incumbent firms to deter entry by new firms. Such corporate governance externalities have important implications for regulatory standards, ownership structure of firms, and the market for corporate control.

Inflation targeting is gaining popularity as a framework for conducting monetary policy. At the same time many countries employ some sort of foreign exchange intervention policy assuming that these two policies can coexist. This paper attempts to show that both policies are not sustainable. Israel is a classic test case. We test our hypothesis using information from the financial markets. The results support the hypothesis that both policies cannot be sustained in the long run. The conclusion is that a credible monetary policy aimed at inflation targets should be conducted in a free floating exchange rate regime.

This paper examines why unsolicited ratings tend to be lower than solicited ratings. Both self-selection among issuers and strategic conservatism of rating agencies may be reasonable explanations. Analyses of default incidences of non-U.S. borrowers between January 1996 and December 2006 show that rating conservatism may play a role for industrial firms, but self-selection cannot be fully rejected. Neither can it for insurance companies, though data restrictions impede further conclusions. For unsolicited bank ratings, however, we find strong evidence that rating conservatism is an important cause. The downward bias also appears to increase along with banks’ opaqueness.

This paper analyzes the theoretical and quantitative implications of optimal capital taxation in the neoclassical growth model with aggregate shocks and incomplete markets. The model features a representative-agent economy with proportional taxes on labor and capital. I first consider the case that the only asset the government can trade is a real risk-free bond. Taxes on capital are set one period in advance, reflecting inertia in tax codes and ruling out replication of the complete markets allocation. Because capital income varies with the state of the economy, capital taxation provides a state contingent source of revenues. I thus identify a novel potential role for capital taxation as a risk sharing instrument between the government and private agents. However, this benefit must be weighted again the distortionary cost of capital taxation. For a baseline case, the optimal policy features a zero tax on capital. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the baseline case provides an excellent benchmark. I next allow the government to hold a non trivial position in capital. Capital ownership provides the same benefit or risk sharing but without the cost of tax distortions. In a variety of quantitative exercises, I show that capital ownership allows the government to realize about 90% of the welfare gains from moving to complete markets. Large positions are typically required for optimality. But smaller positions achieve substantial benefits. In a business-cycle simulation, I show that a 15% short equity position achieves over 40% of the welfare gains from completing markets.

This paper develops tools and techniques to analyze the determinants of factor allocation and factor prices in economies with a large number of goods and factors. The main results of our paper characterize sufficient conditions for robust monotone comparative statics predictions in a Roy-like assignment model. These general results are then used to generate new insights about the consequences of globalization.