Table S9. Alternate control groups. Table S10. Different time horizons. Table S11. Subsample analyses. Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

The option to obtain a General Education Development (GED) certificate changes the incentives facing high school students. This paper evaluates the effect of three different GED policy innovations on high school graduation rates. A six point decrease in the GED pass rate due to an increase in passing standards produced a 1.3 point decline in overall dropout rates. The introduction of a GED certification program in high schools in Oregon produced a four percent decrease in graduation rates. Introduction of GED certificates in California increased dropout rates by 3 points. The GED program induces high school students to drop out.

A common concern surrounding minimum wage policies is their impact on independent businesses, which are often feared to be less able to bear or pass on cost increases. We examine how these typically small and medium-size firms accommodate minimum wage increases along product and labor market margins using a matched owner-firm-worker panel data set drawn from the universe of U.S. tax records over a 10-year period, and using state minimum wage changes as identifying variation. We find that on average, firms in highly exposed industries do not substantially reduce employment—they do not lay off workers but moderately reduce part-time hiring. Instead, these firms are able to fully finance the new labor costs with new revenues, leaving average owner profits unchanged. Higher wage floors, however, forestall entry, particularly for less productive firms, reducing the number of independent firms operating in these industries by roughly 2%. Yet these industries do not shrink; instead, incumbent responses and strong positive selection among entrants reshape industries that rely heavily on low-wage workers, yielding fewer but more productive firms after the cost shock. We also take a worker-level perspective to examine how potentially vulnerable individuals are affected by minimum wage increases. Using panels of low-earning and young workers, we find that their average earnings rise substantially with the minimum wage, while they are no less likely to be employed. Worker transitions indicate that minimum wage increases boost retention and that worker reallocation from independent firms toward corporations buffers disemployment impacts from reduced hiring at independent firms.

Current concern with the impact of new technologies on the wage structure motivates this study. We offer evidence that technology-skill and capital-skill (relative) complementarities existed in manufacturing early in this century and were related to the adoption of electric motors and particular production methods. Industries, from 1909 to 1929, with more capital per worker and a greater proportion of motive energy coming from purchased electricity employed relatively more educated blue-collar workers in 1940 and paid their production workers substantially more. We also find a strong positive association between changes in capital intensity and the nonproduction worker wage bill from 1909–1919 implying capital-skill complementarity as large as in recent years.

This paper documents the extent to which immigrants participate in the many programs that make up the welfare state. The immigrant-native difference in the probability of receiving cash benefits is small, but the gap widens once other programs are included in the analysis: 21 percent of immigrant households receive some type of assistance, as compared with only 14 percent of native households. The types of benefits received by earlier immigrants influence the types of benefits received by newly arrived immigrants. Hence there might be ethnic networks that transmit information about the availability of particular benefits to new immigrants.

I. Introduction: Neoclassical theory and the evolutionary alternative, 90, — II. A specific evolutionary model, 93. — III. Calibration of the model, 98. — IV. Simulation results, 102. — V. Conclusion, 116.

This paper investigates whether stocks earn a premium for their sensitivity to market tail events, referred to as tail risk exposure (TRE). We show that commonly used estimators of TRE, typically based on tail dependence between asset and market returns exhibit significant statistical biases, particularly in the presence of general market dependence. Empirically, we find that tail risk is priced only in low-correlation stocks, where average market comovement is weak. This suggests that investors underestimate TRE in low-correlation stocks and overestimate it in high-correlation stocks. To address this, we propose a novel double-sort portfolio strategy that accounts for both TRE and correlation, allowing us to isolate and accurately price TRE. This strategy consistently outperforms traditional single-sort methods in terms of predictive accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.

Social interactions determine many economic behaviours, but information on social ties does not exist in most publicly available and widely used datasets. We present results on the identification of social networks from observational panel data that contains no information on social ties between agents. In the context of a canonical social interactions model, we provide sufficient conditions under which the social interactions matrix, endogenous and exogenous social effect parameters are globally identified if networks are constant over time. We also provide an extension of the method for time-varying networks. We then describe how high-dimensional estimation techniques can be used to estimate the interactions model based on the adaptive elastic net Generalized Method of Moments. We employ the method to study tax competition across U.S. states. The identified social interactions matrix implies that tax competition differs markedly from the common assumption of competition between geographically neighbouring states, providing further insights into the long-standing debate on the relative roles of factor mobility and yardstick competition in driving tax setting behaviour across states. Most broadly, our identification and application show that the analysis of social interactions can be extended to economic realms where no network data exist.

This paper assesses the current state of evidence on the impact of trade policy reform on poverty in developing countries. There is little empirical evidence addressing this question directly, but a lot of related evidence on specific aspects. We summarize this evidence using an analytic framework addressing four key areas: economic growth and stability; households and markets; wages and employment and government revenue. Twelve key questions are identified and empirical studies and results are discussed. We argue that there is no simple generalizable conclusion about the relationship between trade liberalization and poverty, and the picture is much less negative than is often suggested. In the long run and on average, trade liberalization is likely to be strongly poverty alleviating, and there is no convincing evidence that it will generally increase overall poverty or vulnerability. But there is evidence that the poor may be less well placed in the short run to protect themselves against adverse effects and take advantage of favorable opportunities.

We examine whether PCAOB inspection deficiencies related to management review controls (MRCs) affect financial reporting decisions. Using the goodwill impairment setting, we find that firms are more likely to record goodwill impairments when their auditors have received more PCAOB inspection deficiencies related to goodwill MRCs. The association is stronger when inspection deficiencies are more likely to lead to changes to the design or implementation of an internal control (repeat deficiencies and deficiencies related to MRC precision). We observe some evidence that MRC inspection deficiencies increase the likelihood of goodwill impairment even when unrelated to goodwill, indicating that improving the audit of MRCs can broadly affect financial reporting. Our findings provide evidence that PCAOB inspections affect not only auditor behavior but also the financial reporting behavior of audit clients. Specifically, inspection feedback appears to influence reporting outcomes through changes in the audit and evaluation of MRCs, identifying a channel through which regulatory oversight affects issuers. The results have implications for audit firms seeking to remediate inspection deficiencies, for management and audit committees responsible for overseeing significant estimates and impairment analyses, and for regulators evaluating the broader effectiveness of the PCAOB inspection process.