This paper investigates the usefulness of the real-time macroeconomic news-flow as a leading indicator of firm-level end-of-quarter realized earnings. Using recent advances in macroeconomics, I develop a nowcasting model for quarterly earnings and provide two main findings. First, I show that my model provides out-of-sample expectations that are as accurate as analysts’ forecasts. Second, macroeconomic news embedded in my nowcasts is not fully incorporated into investors’ earnings expectations and predicts future abnormal returns around earnings announcements. These findings have three main implications for capital markets research. First, real-time macroeconomic news can be used to update earnings expectations in real-time. Second, there are economic benefits of doing so, as evidenced by the magnitude of risk-adjusted returns around earnings announcements. Third, after three decades of almost nonexistent research on time-series models for quarterly earnings, the door is open again for fruitful research in this area.

The PCAOB adopted critical audit matters (CAMs) to meet public demand for informative audit disclosure, but stakeholders are concerned this goal has not been achieved. We explore this disconnect via interviews with 30 highly experienced auditors. We find that audit firms expended considerable resources to implement CAM best practices. However, overwhelming institutional pressure gave rise to informal rules of thumb that prioritize symbolic comfort over substantive change. The first is don’t be an outlier , so auditors defer to the national office to ensure conformity and avoid PCAOB scrutiny. The second is report the “right” number of CAMs by never reporting zero and reporting at least one recurring CAM. The third is avoid surprises by communicating with the client to ensure that CAMs do not contain original information and allowing management to preempt auditor disclosures. Collectively, these rules yield CAMs that comply with PCAOB standards but do not provide new information and instead maintain the status quo.

Franklin M. Fisher, Robert M. Solow, James M. Kearl; Aggregate Production Functions: Some CES Experiments, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 44, Issue

We demonstrate the value-relevance of foreign earnings for US multinational firms by examining the associations between annual abnormal stock performance and changes in firms′ domestic and foreign incomes. For 2570 tirm-year observations between 1985 and 1993, both foreign and domestic earnings changes have significant positive associations with annual excess return measures: however, the association coefficient on foreign income is significantly larger than the association coefficient on domestic income. We demonstrate this larger association coefficient for foreign income is consistent with differences in growth opportunities between domestic and foreign operations.

Auditing, Stratified Sampling, Substantive test, Stochastic modeling

Many of the events that trigger clawback provisions are associated with risky corporate policies and variable performance outcomes. We propose and test the hypothesis that clawback provisions motivate managers to reduce firm risk. Panel ordinary least squares, general method of moments with instrumental variables, and propensity square matching models all indicate that clawback provisions decrease the volatility of stock returns. The channels that connect clawback presence to firm risk include more conservative investment and financial policies. The clawback-induced reduction in risk-taking appears to benefit shareholders on average. The gains from reduced risk-taking are larger for firms with fewer growth options, lower R&D, and prior wrongdoing.

We develop a model of liquidity shortages that incorporates a general equilibrium feature of liquidity: when banks hold more liquidity, other agents in the economy hold less of it and will supply less in times of crisis. We show that the private holdings of liquidity at banks are inefficient, with the direction of the bias being determined by the characteristics of the suppliers of liquidity to banks. Minimum liquidity requirements for banks may reduce welfare; in such cases interest rate policies that stimulate the ex-post supply of liquidity can restore efficiency. Overall, our results show that optimal liquidity policies critically depend on a financial institution’s (marginal) source of liquidity and will hence differ across institutions of different types.

This paper argues that the presence of both profit-based and stock price-based components in compensation contracts provides senior managers the incentive to optimally allocate effort to both implementing previously devised strategies that provide current profits and to formulating new strategies that create shareholder value. If managers are concerned about their reputation and if outcomes of strategy implementation are more informative about their ability than outcomes of strategy formulation, compensation based only on profit will incent managers to boost their reputation by over-allocating effort to strategy implementation. To restore the balance the contract needs to contain some stock-based compensation.

This paper proposes and implements a security design framework to assess why corporate managers issue convertible debt. We examine three theories that make predictions about the design of convertible debt. Our results suggest that some issuers design convertible debt to mitigate asset substitution problems, while others design it to reduce adverse selection problems. We also find that issuers vary convertible debt security design over the business cycle in response to time variation in asset substitution and adverse selection problems. Overall, the results indicate that corporate managers actively alter convertible debt security design to mitigate costly external finance problems. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: G32