Knowledge that Transforms

In this paper we quantitatively characterize the optimal capital and labor income tax in an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic, uninsurable income shocks, where households also differ permanently with respect to their ability to generate income. The welfare criterion we employ is ex-ante (before ability is realized) expected (with respect to uninsurable productivity shocks) utility of a newborn in a stationary equilibrium. Embedded in this welfare criterion is a concern of the policy maker for insurance against idiosyncratic shocks and redistribution among agents of different abilities. Such insurance and redistribution can be achieved by progressive labor income taxes or taxation of capital income, or both. The policy maker has then to trade off these concerns against the standard distortions these taxes generate for the labor supply and capital accumulation decision. We find that in our model the optimal capital income tax rate is significantly positive. The optimal (marginal and average) tax rate on capital is 36%, in conjunction with a progressive labor income tax code that is, to a first approximation, a flat tax of 23% with a deduction that corresponds to about $6,000 (relative to an average income of households in the model of $35,000). We argue that the high optimal capital income tax is mainly driven by the life cycle structure of the model whereas the optimal progressivity of the labor income tax is due to the insurance and redistribution role of the income tax system.

Every year, millions of pounds of toxic chemicals thought to be linked to developmental problems in fetuses and young children are released into the air. In this paper we estimate the effect of these releases on the health of newborns. Using data from the Toxic Release Inventory Program and Vital Statistics Natality and Mortality files, we find significant negative effects of prenatal exposure to toxicants on gestation and birth weight. We also find that several developmental chemicals increase the probability of infant death. The effect is quite sizeable: the reported reductions in cadmium, toluene, and epichlorohydrin releases during the 90s could account for about 3.9 percent of the overall decrease in infant mortality. Our results are robust to several specification checks, such as comparing developmental to non-developmental chemicals, and fugitive air releases to stack air releases.

In this paper, we analyze a class of models in which there are interjurisdictional spillovers among heterogeneous jurisdictions, as illustrated for instance by CO2 emissions that affect the global environment. Each jurisdiction's emissions depend upon the local stock of private capital. Capital is interjurisdictionally - mobile and may be taxed to help finance local public expenditures. We show that decentralized policymaking leads to efficient resource allocations in important cases, even in the complete absence of corrective interventions by higher - level governments or coordination of policy through Coasian bargaining. In particular, even when the preferences and production technologies differ among the agents, the decentralized system can still result in globally efficient allocation.

Many emerging market economies oscillate between periods of high and low growth (see Aguiar and Gopinath, 2007). These changes in growth regimes generate business cycles that are markedly different from the ones observed in developed countries: consumption and investment are volatile relative to output, and net exports are strongly counter-cyclical. This volatility is often accompanied by sharp changes in the policy environment as well. For example, figure 1 shows the relationship between two measures of expropriation and political risk and real GDP for Argentina between 1984 and 2007. For easy comparison to the GDP series, the risk factors are inverted so that an increase in the index corresponds to a decrease in risk, and all series are normalized to 100 in 1984.1 The risk factor series are highly correlated with output.2 When GDP is higher than average, the institutions and government policies in Argentina foster growth, as measured by increased political stability, enhanced respect for property rights, and stronger contract enforcement. In Aguiar et al. (forthcoming), we develop a framework to understand these policy reversals and the associated economic volatility. In particular, we explore the joint dynamics of sovereign debt, investment, and expropriation risk in a small open economy model. Our departing point from previous work was the introduction of two political economy frictions. ∗Prepared for the January 2009 AEA Annual Meeting. We thank Thomas Sampson for excellent research assistance. 1The measures of risk are taken from Political Risk Services (PRS). The Expropriation Risk Index is a scaled version of the PRS Investment Profile series, which summarizes the government’s attitude toward inward investment based on four risk factors: expropriation, taxation, repatriation, and labor costs. The Political Risk index assigns risk points to a group of factors, of which, the Investment Profile variable is one. Real GDP is from the World Development Indicators. 2The correlation between the inverse measure of expropriation risk and GDP is 0.68, and the political risk and GDP is 0.71.

Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycles, so the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most models fail. We propose a unified model that generates aggregate and sectoral comovement in response to contemporaneous and news shocks about fundamentals. The fundamentals that we consider are aggregate and sectoral total factor productivity shocks as well as investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and preferences that allow us to parameterize the strength of short-run wealth effects on the labor supply.

There is economic pressure to postpone the retirement age, but employers are still reluctant to employ older workers. We investigate the comparative behavior of juniors and seniors in experiments conducted both onsite with the employees of two large firms and in a conventional laboratory environment with students and retirees. We show that seniors are no more risk averse than juniors and are typically more cooperative; both juniors and working seniors respond strongly to competition. The implication is that it may be beneficial to define additional incentives near the end of the career to motivate and retain older workers.

Executive Summary 1. Survey responses are always subject to measurement error. In general surveys (and especially longitudinal surveys), there are severe constraints on the time that can be spent eliciting a less noisy response for any target variable. In this paper we consider when it may be better to consider multiple noisy measures of the target measure rather than improving the reliability of a single measure. 2. The Kotlarski result states that if the measurement errors in two measures of the same target variable are mutually independent and independent of the true value then we can recover the entire distribution of the quantity of interest, up to location. 3. We consider designing surveys to deliver measurement error with desirable properties. This shifts the emphasis from reliability (the signal to noise ratio for any given measure) to the joint properties of the multiple measures. 4. To illustrate our ideas, we consider a concrete example: the measurement of consumption inequality. A small simulation study suggests that the approach we propose has promise. The next step in this research agenda is experiments in survey data collection.

We examine the impacts of increased US gasoline taxes in a model that links the markets for new, used, and scrapped vehicles and recognizes the considerable heterogeneity among households and cars. Household choice parameters derive from an estimation procedure that integrates individual choices for car ownership and miles traveled. We find that each cent-per-gallon increase in the price of gasoline reduces the equilibrium gasoline consumption by about 0.2 percent. Taking account of revenue recycling, the impact of a 25-cent gasoline tax increase on the average household is about $30 per year (2001 dollars). Distributional impacts depend importantly on how additional revenues from the tax increase are recycled.

In settings ranging from office suite software to online auctions, casual empiricism suggests a strong tendency for markets where platforms compete to tip to a single dominant player. But which platform will prevail? One might hope that the better platform will be selected. Theory, however, offers no such comfort. Standard models suggest that tipping to any platform—even an inferior one—comprises an equilibrium. Paul A. David (1985) suggests that getting stuck in a bad equilibrium is not merely a theoretical possibility, but a good description of what happened in the typewriter keyboard market. He argues that the QWERTY arrangement prevailed (and continues to prevail) despite its inferiority to the DVORAK arrangement. The essence of David’s argument is that, by virtue of its head start in the market, users expected QWERTY to prevail and these expectations were selffulfilling. As a consequence, the superior platform, DVORAK, was never adopted. The idea that self-fulfilling expectations can lead an inferior platform to triumph in the face of better alternatives has now become standard in the economics literature and features prominently in many textbooks (see, for instance, Luis M. B. Cabral, 2000). Yet, despite the long passage of time since David’s piece was first published, the datedness of the examples illustrating this idea is striking. Most textbooks, including Cabral’s, are content to focus on QWERTY as well as the competition between Betamax and VHS some thirty years ago. We thank Dylan Minor and Xingtian Zhu for excellent research assistance. We gratefully

Sanctioning institutions are of utmost importance for overcoming free-riding tendencies and enforcing outcomes that maximize group welfare in social dilemma situations. We investigate, theoretically and experimentally, the endogenous formation of institutions in public goods provision. Our theoretical analysis shows that players may form sanctioning institutions in equilibrium, including those governing only a subset of players. The experiment confirms that institutions are formed and that it positively affects cooperation and group welfare. However, the data also shows that success is not guaranteed. Players are unwilling to implement equilibrium institutions in which some players have the opportunity to free ride. Our results emphasize the role of fairness in the institution formation process.