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Stocks as Lotteries? An Experimental Test of Expected Utility versus Behavioral Models

Review of Financial Studies 2026 open access
Our study provides the first causal test of classical and behavioral asset pricing models that incorporate skewness pricing. In line with these models, our experimental markets show that skewness is systematically priced. Our findings also reveal that positively skewed assets available in small supply exhibit negative expected returns, which is consistent with prospect theory, but not with expected utility models. Furthermore, in line with the mechanism underlying prospect theory, we show that the negative returns of the positively skewed asset are most pronounced during market sessions where traders overweight the low probability of receiving a large payoff.

Corporate social responsibility misconduct and formation of board interlocks

Journal of Financial Stability 2023 67, 101162 open access
Corporate social responsibility (CSR) misconduct often negatively impacts firms and damages their reputation. Using data on U.S. listed firms from 2002 to 2018, we demonstrate that firms are more likely to establish board interlocks with firms that have better CSR performance after a CSR-related violation than with other firms. Furthermore, this relationship is more pronounced in violating firms that have a greater incentive to maintain their reputation than in other firms. We also find that the capital market and the media react positively to board interlock announcements by violating firms. However, we find no improvement in future CSR performance or a reduced likelihood of future CSR misconduct after the formation of such board interlocks. Altogether, our findings suggest that establishing board interlocks with firms that have better CSR performance is an effective signaling strategy for reputation management for firms engaging in CSR misconduct.

Decreasing returns to scale and skill in hedge funds

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 156, 107009 open access
In this paper, we investigate value creation by hedge funds using Berk and van Binsbergen's (2015) value-added. We find that, on average, a hedge fund manager extracts $0.76 million per month from the market. We provide strong evidence of persistence in value creation by hedge fund managers. Of three skill indicators—skill ratio, fee ratio, and total compensation—we find that total compensation best identifies the skilled manager out-of-sample. Investors in value-creating funds benefit from a better risk–return payoff. While hedge funds operate in a less competitive market than mutual funds, incentive fees do not indicate greater skill. The value that hedge funds can extract from the market depends on both the profitability and scalability of the investment strategy.

Corporate Climate Risk: Measurements and Responses

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(6), 1778-1830 open access
This paper conducts a textual analysis of earnings call transcripts to quantify climate risk exposure at the firm level. We construct dictionaries that measure physical and transition climate risks separately and identify firms that proactively respond to climate risks. Our validation analysis shows that our measures capture firm-level variations in respective climate risk exposure. Firms facing high transition risk, especially those that do not proactively respond, have been valued at a discount in recent years as aggregate investor attention to climate-related issues has been increasing. We document differences in how firms respond through investment, green innovation, and employment when facing high climate risk exposure.

Do Markets Erode Social Responsibility? *

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2015 130(1), 219-266 open access
This article studies socially responsible behavior in markets. We develop a laboratory product market in which low-cost production creates a negative externality for third parties, but where alternative production with higher costs mitigates the externality. Our first study, conducted in Switzerland, reveals a persistent preference among many consumers and firms for avoiding negative social impact in the market, reflected both in the composition of product types and in a price premium for socially responsible products. Socially responsible behavior is generally robust to varying market characteristics, such as increased seller competition and limited consumer information, and it responds to prices in a manner consistent with a model in which positive social impact is a utility-enhancing feature of a consumer product. In a second study, we investigate whether market social responsibility varies across societies by comparing market behavior in Switzerland and China. While subjects in Switzerland and China do not differ in their degree of social concern in nonmarket contexts, we find that low-cost production that creates negative externalities is significantly more prevalent in markets in China. Across both studies, consumers in markets exhibit less social concern than subjects in a comparable individual choice context.

Time-series momentum in nearly 100 years of stock returns

Journal of Banking & Finance 2018 97, 283-296 open access
We document strong time-series momentum effects in individual stocks in the US markets from 1927 to 2017. Time-series momentum is not specific to sub-periods, firm sizes, formation- and holding-period lengths, or geographic markets. The effects persist after controlling for standard risk factors. Time-series momentum effects are conditional on the market state, the information discreteness of the constituent stocks and investor sentiment. We propose two alternative implementations, revised time-series momentum and dual momentum, which generate even higher profits than standard time-series momentum.

What Drives Investor Response to CSR Performance Reports?

Contemporary Accounting Research 2020 37(1), 101-130 open access
Recent research finds that investors' assessments of a stock's fundamental value are influenced by corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance through the affect‐as‐information heuristic. We extend prior research by examining two boundary conditions for the use of this heuristic: (i) whether the CSR performance relates to activities that are integrated in a firm's core business practices (material CSR issues) or not (immaterial CSR issues), and (ii) whether the CSR performance is positive or negative. Employing an experimental method, we find that the affect‐as‐information heuristic applies only to immaterial CSR issues but not to material CSR issues, and only to positive but not negative CSR performance. Our findings suggest that investors likely use a heuristic approach to process immaterial and positive CSR issues, and a more deliberate and systematic approach to process material or negative CSR issues. Our study has both practical and theoretical implications.

The value of growth: Changes in profitability and future stock returns

Journal of Banking & Finance 2024 158, 107036 open access
We use a simple two-stage dividend growth model to connect profitability growth and firm scale to stock returns. In this framework, both the magnitude and the length of the first-stage growth play a key role in determining returns. Using current profitability growth to estimate magnitude and firm scale as inverse proxy for length, we predict that future returns should increase with current profitability growth but, crucially, the effect should diminish with firm scale. Across a range of empirical tests, we find strong evidence in support of our model determinants and predictions. Our findings are not explained by an array of associated, potentially confounding variables.

The information role of advisors in mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from acquirers hiring targets’ ex-advisors

Journal of Banking & Finance 2016 70, 247-264 open access
We examine the information role of financial advisors by focusing on mergers and acquisitions in which acquiring firms hire target firms’ ex-advisors. We document that by employing targets’ ex-advisors, acquirers pay lower takeover premiums and secure a larger proportion of merger synergies. The corresponding targets exhibit lower announcement returns and are less likely to be propositioned by competing bidders. These results indicate that acquirers take advantage of value-relevant information about targets through targets’ ex-advisors, and achieve bargaining advantages in deal negotiations. In contrast, we document no discernible value effects when targets hire acquirers’ ex-advisors, suggesting that the information role of acquirers’ ex-advisors hired by targets is weaker than that of targets’ ex-advisors hired by acquirers.

Public Discourse and Socially Responsible Market Behavior

American Economic Review 2024 114(10), 3041-3074 open access
We investigate the causal impact of public discourse on socially responsible market behavior. Across three laboratory experiments, having market participants engage in public discourse generally increases market social responsibility. These positive impacts are robust to variation in several characteristics of the discourse. We provide evidence that discourse strengthens beliefs that others support socially responsible exchange. However, relaxing requirements to engage in discourse sharply reduces its effectiveness. Our findings suggest that campaigns encouraging discussion of appropriate market behavior can have sizable impacts on addressing inefficiencies due to market failures but that policies encouraging broad public engagement may be important.