Knowledge that Transforms

As a consequence of aggregation over markets, the observed quantity may be less than the quantity demanded and less than the quantity supplied. To deal with such situations, a new technique is proposed for estimating demand and supply curves and the extent of shortage and slack. The technique is applied to the consumption goods markets of Czechoslovakia, the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Yugoslavia. It is found that shortage, even corrected for a discouraged consumer effect, is seldom as great as slack.

There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations macroeconomic theory. Here we show that electoral cycles in taxes, government spending and money growth can be modeled as an equilibrium signaling process. The cycle is driven by temporary information asymmetries which can arise if, for example, the government has more current information on its performance in providing for national defence. Incumbents cheat least when their private information is either extremely favourable or extremely unfavourable. An exogeneous increase in the incumbent party's popularity does not necessarily imply a damped policy cycle.

We investigate the relationship between management ownership and market valuation of the firm, as measured by Tobin's Q. In a 1980 cross-section of 371 Fortune 500 firms, we find evidence of a significant nonmonotonic relationship. Tobin's Q first increases, then declines, and finally rises slightly as ownership by the board of directors rises. For older firms, there is evidence that Q is lower when the firm is run by a member of the founding family than when it is run by an officer unrelated to the founder.

This paper introduces an event-study method that incorporates the possibility of a random event date. Consistent with empirical evidence, we assume an event may affect not only the conditional mean of a security's return, but also its conditional variance. We compare the statistical power and efficiency of our maximum-likelihood method with the standard application of traditional event-study methods to multiday security returns. Assuming a two-day event period, our empirical results provide evidence that the multiday approach is robust. We use our maximum-likelihood method to investigate the valuation effects of stock splits and stock dividends.

Dual-class exchange offers give stockholders the oppurtunity to exchange common stock for shares with limited voting rights but higher dividends. This paper develops a model to analyze the exchange decision. It shows that exchange offers can induce outside shareholders to exchange their shares for limited voting shares even though the same shareholders, in the same circumstances but acting collectively, would choose not to exchange.

We develop a model of stock-split behavior in which the split serves as a costly signal of managers' private information because stock trading costs depend on stock prices. We present empirical evidence confirming the relation between stock trading costs and stock prices. The signaling model is estimated using a large sample of splits and explains a substantial fraction of the split-announcement returns.

I examine three composite analyst forecast of earnings per share as proxies for expected earnings. The most current forecast weakly dominates the mean and median forecasts in accuracy. This is evidence that forecast dates are more relevant for determining accuracy than individual error. Consistent with previous research, I find analysts more accurate than time-series models. However prior knowledge of forecast errors from a quarterly autoregressive model predicts excess stock returns better than prior knowledge of analysts' errors. This is inconsistent with previous research, and is anomalous given analysts' greater accuracy.

David B. Smith, An Investigation of Securities and Exchange Commission Regulation of Auditor Change Disclosures: The Case of Accounting Series Release No. 165, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 26, No. 1 (Spring, 1988), pp. 134-145

Incentive problems arise in the electric utilities industry as a consequence of the institutional and legal arrangements of the cost-plus pricing regime under which natural and statutory monopolies operate. In the United States, such monopolies operate under a cost recovery system that gives the firm a mechanism by which it can shift all or part of the cost of moral hazard risk to consumers, who then become the residual claimants (Sherman [1980]). In this setting, expense accruals have a more direct link to the firm's cash flows than is the case in unregulated industries. In particular, pricing a monopolist's output at cost-plus means that accruing expenses generates sales revenues for utilities. Consequently, agency cost can be included in the allowable cost passed on to consumers. The result is that the residual loss is shared between the consumers and shareholders with two competing consequences: (1) it would be in the best interest of shareholders to provide managers with incentives to shift all costs to the consumer; and, by the same token, (2) it would be in the consumers' interest to persuade regulators to challenge the cost assumptions underlying the firms' requests for revenue requirements.

Recently, several authors have argued for the use for the use of dynamic preference structures for leisure which incorporate forms of intertemporally nonseparable utility in the analysis of intertemporal labor supply decisions. In this paper, we examine whether such nonseparable utility functions are important in characterizing microdata on life-cycle labor supply. Using longitudinal data on males from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we estimate a model of life-cycle labor supply and consumption under uncertainty in which the structure of intertemporal leisure preferences is allowed to be nonseparable in leisure. Our model nests as special cases a number of alternative specifications considered in the literature. We investigate the robustness of our findings to certain forms of population heterogeneity and to some types of model misspecification. Across a number of alternative specifications, we find evidence that the standard assumption of intertemporally separable preferences for leisure is not consistent with data for prime-age males.