Knowledge that Transforms

ABSTRACT We use predictions of aggregate stock return variances from daily data to estimate time‐varying monthly variances for size‐ranked portfolios. We propose and estimate a single factor model of heteroskedasticity for portfolio returns. This model implies time‐varying betas. Implications of heteroskedasticity and time‐varying betas for tests of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) are then documented. Accounting for heteroskedasticity increases the evidence that risk‐adjusted returns are related to firm size. We also estimate a constant correlation model. Portfolio volatilities predicted by this model are similar to those predicted by more complex multivariate generalized‐autoregressive‐conditional‐heteroskedasticity (GARCH) procedures.

A new empirical method and data set are used to study the effects of tax policy on corporate financing choices. Clear evidence emerges that non-debt tax shields "crowd out" interest deductibility, thus decreasing the desirability of debt issues at the margin. Previous studies which failed to find tax effects examined debt-equity ratios rather than individual, well-specified financing choices. This paper also demonstrates the importance of controlling for confounding effects which other papers ignored. Results on other (asymmetric information) effects on financing decisions are also presented.

This paper analyzes the relation between real stock returns and real activity from 1889–1988. It replicates Fama's (1990) results for the 1953–1987 period using an additional 65 years of data. It also compares two measures of industrial production in the tests: (1) the series produced by Babson for 1889–1918, spliced with the Federal Reserve Board index of industrial production for 1919–1988, and (2) the new Miron and Romer (1989) index spliced with the Federal Reserve Board index in 1941. Fama's findings are robust for a much longer period—future production growth rates explain a large fraction of the variation in stock returns. The new Miron-Romer measure of industrial production is less closely related to stock price movements than the older Babson and Federal Reserve Board measures.

This paper examined the returns earned by subscribing to initial public offerings of equity (IPOs). Rock (1986) suggests that IPO returns are required by uninformed investors as compensation for the risk of trading against superior information. We show that IPOs with more informed investor capital require higher returns. The marketing underwriter's reputation reveals the expected level of “informed” activity. Prestigious underwriters are associated with lower risk offerings. With less risk there is less incentive to acquire information and fewer informed investors. Consequently, prestigious underwriters are associated with IPOs that have lower returns.

ABSTRACT This paper presents our investigation of the factors that determine secondary market prices of developing country syndicated loans. Trading volume in this market has almost doubled yearly from 1985 to 1988 while average market prices declined from 73% to 41% of par value during the same period. We find that loan values depend on a country's solvency rather than its liquidity and show that a country's adoption of a debt conversion program significantly decreases its loans' market prices. Furthermore, the debt moratoria by Brazil and Peru, as well as the developing‐country‐specific provisions made by U.S. banks, impact loan prices negatively.

ABSTRACT This paper finds a high correlation between the open to close returns for U.S. stocks in the previous trading day and the Japanese equity market performance in the current period. In contrast, the Japanese market has only a small impact on the U.S. return in the current period. High correlations among open to close returns are a violation of the efficient market hypothesis; however, in trading simulations, the excess profits in Japan vanish when transactions costs and transfer taxes are included.

This paper documents for a sample of 327 US acquisitions between 1975 and 1987 three forces that systematically reduce the announcement day return of bidding firms. The returns to bidding shareholders are lower when their firm diversifies, when it buys a rapidly growing target , and when the performance of its managers has been poor before the acquisition. These results are consistent with the proposition that managerial rather than shareholders' objectives drive bad acquisitions.

ABSTRACT This paper presents an information‐theoretic, infinite horizon model of the equity issue decision. The model predicts that (a) equity issues on average are preceded by an abnormal positive return on the stock, although for some firms the issue is preceded by a loss; (b) equity issues on average are preceded by an abnormal rise in the market; and (c) the stock price drops at the announcement of an issue. The model provides a measure of the welfare cost of asymmetric information; the welfare loss may be small even if the price drop at issue announcement is large.

This paper tests whether the August 1982 advent of the Latin American debt crisis affected the implicit value of commercial bank loans to major Latin American debtors and hence, the value of equities. In contrast to previous studies, the analysis provides an explicit derivation of the theoretical impact of such an effect, uses a more efficient pooled cross-sectional, time-series estimating technique, addresses the question of whether (ex ante) required returns on bank equities also were affected, and compares the estimates to the behavior of the direct market for Latin American bonds. The results imply that the crisis did cause significant debt discounting as well as an increase in required returns. However, unlike the bond market, most of this equity effect was delayed 6–9 months.