Knowledge that Transforms

We utilize the default by Argentina in 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, as natural experiments, to monitor the complex interactions between sovereign bonds when subjected to endogenous and exogenous shocks. By forming pairs of Latin American sovereign bonds, bundled into similar maturity class, the analysis highlights the complex nature of risk shifting, and the temporal nature of the volatility transmission and sharing mechanisms in the lead up to, and after, a crisis period. The results show that shorter maturity groups and longer maturity groups behave in fundamentally different ways in terms of volatility transmission, while one or two leading countries act as regional benchmarks. The dynamics are consistent with temporal but segmented investor preferences, with the arrival of crisis contributing to a breakdown in the previous relationships. In addition, there is additional economic benefit from utilizing knowledge of the volatility structure underlying the historic transmission channels to improve the portfolio outcomes of market participants.

We investigate how public and private information affects corporate CDS spreads prior to rating announcements. First, CDS spreads of firms with high news intensity change significantly earlier and more strongly prior to negative rating announcements than those of firms with low news intensity. Second, the contents of daily corporate news significantly influence the direction in which the CDS spreads move. Third, CDS spreads change more strongly for firms with more bank relationships and days with no news but large abnormal CDS spread changes are more frequent prior to negative rating announcements than prior to positive ones. The study provides new evidence on the informational efficiency of the CDS market, the impact of credit rating announcements, and insider trading.

This paper studies the life-cycle profiles of small firms’ cost and use of credit using a panel of Finnish firms. The choice of method matters for the conclusions drawn about the relationship between firm age and financing costs; the cross-sectional age profiles of financing costs are hump-shaped and consistent with hold-up theories, whereas methods that control for cohort fixed effects demonstrate that the financing costs decrease monotonically as the firms mature. The life-cycle profiles of the use of credit also indicate that firms are more dependent on financial intermediaries in the early periods of their lives. Furthermore, the cohorts born during recessions pay higher financing costs and use smaller amounts of bank loans, even after their creditworthiness is controlled for. The recession cohort effect appears to be more related to the experience of starting-up the firm in the recession than to the CEOs growing up in a recession during their early adulthood.

We examine the dynamics of bond correlation using a broad sample of US corporate bonds, and document that bond correlation varies heavily over time. We attribute this variation in bond correlation to variation in risk factor correlation reflecting time-varying flight-to-quality behavior of investors. We show that risk factor correlation increases when investor sentiment worsens, i.e., corporate bond investors exhibit stronger flight-to-quality when their sentiment is bad. Thus, bad investor sentiment leads to flight-to-quality behavior and, ultimately, high bond correlation. Very good sentiment, in contrast, can cause risk factor correlation and bond correlation to be negative.

We compare the performance of local versus foreign institutional investors using a comprehensive data set of equity holdings in 32 countries during the 2000–2010 period. We find that foreign institutions perform as well as local institutions on average, but only domestic institutions show a trading pattern consistent with an information advantage. Our results suggest a smart-money effect of local institutions in countries subject to higher information asymmetry, non-English speaking countries, countries with less efficient stock markets, with poor investor protection, or high levels of corruption. The local advantage is more pronounced in periods of market turmoil and in illiquid stocks.

Financial market information can provide an objective assessment of losses anticipated from temperature changes. In an APT model in which temperature shocks are a systematic risk factor, the risk premium is significantly negative, loadings for most assets are negative, and asset portfolios in more vulnerable industries have stronger negative loadings on a temperature shock factor. Weighted average increases in the cost of equity capital attributed to uncertainty about temperature changes are 0.22 percent, implying a present value loss of 7.92 percent of wealth. These costs represent a new channel that may contribute to cost of climate change assessment.

We introduce and explore Gini-type measures of risk and variability, and develop the corresponding economic capital allocation rules. The new measures are coherent, additive for co-monotonic risks, convenient computationally, and require only finiteness of the mean. To elucidate our theoretical considerations, we derive closed-form expressions for several parametric families of distributions that are of interest in insurance and finance, and further apply our findings to a risk portfolio of a bancassurance company.

The 2000–2013 period was characterized by substantial regulatory, monetary and technological change, especially after the onset of the global financial crisis. This study assesses the total impact of these policy shifts and technological changes on U.S. commercial banks’ short-run and long-run substitution elasticities. An endogenous-break test divides the sample into a pre-crisis period and a (post-) crisis period. During the former period, banks’ inputs tend to be inelastic substitutes. After the onset of the crisis, particularly the long-run substitutability of most input factors decreases to even lower levels due to changes in both cost technology and economic conditions. At the same time, banks’ response to input price changes becomes more sluggish. Hence, especially after the onset of the crisis, banks have little flexibility regarding input factor usage and are thus sensitive to input price changes from a cost perspective.

This study provides new insight into the recent debate on profitability and investment patterns in the cross-section of expected returns. Relying on implied risk premia of U.S. corporate bonds, we document a strong negative relation between exposure to the profitability factor and cost of debt. We do not observe a robust relation between exposure to the investment factor and cost of debt. Our findings are consistent with profitability being a risk factor, but suggest that high profitability implies lower (and not higher) risk. Because the market portfolio consists of all risky assets including corporate bonds, our findings challenge a risk-based explanation for the profitability and investment patterns in stock returns.

Multivariate GARCH models have been designed as an extension of their univariate counterparts. Such a view is appealing from a modeling perspective but imposes correlation dynamics that are similar to time-varying volatility. In this paper, we argue that correlations are quite different in nature. We demonstrate that the highly unstable and erratic behavior that is typically observed for the correlation among financial assets is to a large extent a statistical artifact. We provide evidence that spurious correlation dynamics occur in response to financial events that are sufficiently large to cause a structural break in the time-series of correlations. A measure for the autocovariance structure of conditional correlations allows us to formally demonstrate that the volatility and the persistence of daily correlations are not primarily driven by financial news but by the level of the underlying true correlation. Our results indicate that a rolling-window sample correlation is often a better choice for empirical applications in finance.