Knowledge that Transforms

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expects to have a position for a new faculty member beginning in the 1992-93 academic year. First priority is given to

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A comprehensive and precise exposition of the theory and the main applied topics, plus challenging exercises conveying the key ideas from wide literature.

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Scott W. Barnhart, Andrew C. Szakmary, Testing the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis: Evidence on Unit Roots, Co- Integration, and Stochastic Coefficients, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 26, No. 2 (Jun., 1991), pp. 245-267

This paper presents evidence on the characteristic speculative dynamics of returns on stocks, bond, foreign exchange, real estate, collectibles, and precious metals. It highlights four stylized facts. First, returns tend to be positively serially correlated at high frequency. Second, they are weakly negatively serially correlated over long horizons. Third, deviations of asset values from proxies for fundamental value have predictive power for returns. Fourth, short term interest rates are negatively correlated with excess returns on other assets. The similarity of the results across markets suggests that they may be due to inherent features of the speculative process.

This paper examines postwar U.S. term structure data and finds that for almost any combination of maturities between one month and ten years, a high yield spread between a longer-term and a shorter-term interest rate forecasts rising shorter-term interest rates over the long term, but a declining yield on the longer-term bond over the short term. This pattern is inconsistent with the expectations theory of the term structure, but is consistent, with a model in which the spread is proportional to the value implied by the expectations theory.

OPTIMAL LEARNING BY EXPERIMENTATIONThis paper analyses the dynamic decision problem of an agent who is initially uncertain as to the true shape of his payoff function, but who obtains information aboutit over time by observing the outcome of his past decisions.In the long run, the action is a short run optimum given the beliefs, but may not be an optimum for the true payoff function.We derive conditions under which the limit action is optimal for the true payoff function and establish the robustness of the results.Finally we study the adjustment process in an example where such complete learning does not achieve in the long run.

International differences in the cost of production of a key intermediate product can mean that a domestic firm is dependent on supplies from a foreign vertically integrated firm. This paper considers the incentives for the foreign firm and foreign country to supply the domestic firm when the firms compete in a Cournot or Bertrand market for the final product. The vertical supply decision is significantly affected by domestic supply conditions for the input and a domestic tariff on final product imports. Optimal policy by the exporting country may require a tax on both exports, or a subsidy on both exports.