Knowledge that Transforms

This paper derives and numerically simulates maximum likelihood estimators for the drift in several important diffusion price models. The time series convergence properties of these estimators are compared to those of standard estimators including the geometric and arithmetic means. Merton (1980) demonstrated that it is difficult to efficiently estimate the drift in a log-normal diffusion model. We qualify and strengthen his result by noting that his estimator is the maximum likelihood estimator and by applying our simulation results. However, we also demonstrate that it is possible to efficiently estimate the drift in other useful diffusion price models. In particular, by asking just how much time is needed in order for the maximum likelihood estimators of the drift in different diffusion processes to converge, these results qualify and quantify Black's (1993) statement that “we need such a long period to estimate the average that we have little hope of seeing changes in expected return."

Robert G. Hansen, John R. Lott, Jr., Externalities and Corporate Objectives in a World with Diversified Shareholder/Consumers, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 31, No. 1 (Mar., 1996), pp. 43-68

This paper studies the efficacy of pension fund activism by examining all firms targeted by nine major funds from 1987 to 1993. I document a movement away from takeover-related proxy proposal targetings in the late 1980s to governance-related proxy proposal and nonproxy proposal targetings in the 1990s. For the vast majority of firms, there are no significant abnormal returns at the time of targeting. The subset of firms subject to nonproxy proposal targeting, however, experiences a significant positive wealth effect. There is no evidence of significant long-term improvement in either stock price or accounting measures of performance in the post-targeting period. Collectively, these results cast doubt on the effectiveness of pension fund activism as a substitute for an active market for corporate control.

Kee H. Chung, Hoje Jo, The Impact of Security Analysts' Monitoring and Marketing Functions on the Market Value of Firms, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 31, No. 4 (Dec., 1996), pp. 493-512

This study establishes and tests, within the framework of a noisy rational expectations equilibrium model, the existence of a formal linear relationship between security prices, the average (consensus) and the dispersion of agents' expectations. Variations in the average and in the dispersion of agents' expectations, measured by the earnings forecasts produced by financial analysts, which are gathered and made available by The Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S) , have respectively a positive and negative effect on security prices. The difficulties raised by this estimation, as well as the institutional dimensions of the financial analysis industry are examined. The main results are the following: (1) the most important changes in consensus (in absolute value) correspond to the most important changes in dispersion in the analysts' forecasts, (2) the changes in the consensus and the dispersion of forecasts are respectively positively and negatively linked to Canadian security returns, but given the delay between the production and the public availability of the forecasts, an important part of the price adjustment occurs before the disclosure of forecast changes, (3) the effect on security returns of variations in the consensus dominates the effect of variations in the forecasts' dispersion. Thus, it seems that the impact of information arrival on security prices does not only depend on the direction and the magnitude of the expectations' average revision, but also depends on the direction and the magnitude of the change in the expectations' dispersion.

The study examines how the risk of exhausting corporate tax liabilities before deducting interest expense affects corporate leverage. It differs from prior studies in three ways: (1) it uses data compiled by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) from corporate tax returns rather than accounting data; (2) it measures risk of tax exhaustion more accurately; and (3) it adopts a first‐difference time‐series approach, so that firms act as their own control between adjacent years. These methodological innovations reduce biases caused by measurement error and omitted variables that were present in prior research. The results suggest that, all else being equal, high risk of tax exhaustion reduces firms' use of leverage. As well, the study provides the first evidence that personal taxes significantly affect corporate leverage. The effects on leverage decisions of other variables are also tested and the results are consistent with predictions from prior theoretical work.

This study investigates coefficient bias and heteroscedasticity resulting from scale differences in accounting levels‐based research designs analytically and using simulations based on accounting data. Findings indicate that including a scale proxy as an independent variable is more effective than deflation at mitigating coefficient bias, even if the proxy is 95 percent correlated with the true scale factor. In fact, deflation can worsen coefficient bias. Also, deflation often does not noticeably reduce heteroscedasticity and can decrease estimation efficiency. White (1980) standard errors are close to the true ones in regressions using undeflated variables. Replications of specifications in three recent accounting studies confirm the simulation findings. The findings suggest that when scale differences are of concern, accounting researchers should include a scale proxy as an independent variable and report inferences based on White standard errors. Résumé. Les auteurs examinent, tant sur le plan analytique qu'au moyen de simulations basées sur les données comptables, la distorsion des coefficients et l'hétéroscédasticité résultant des différences d'échelle dans les plans de recherche comptable basés sur les niveaux. Leurs constatations révèlent que l'inclusion d'un substitut d'échelle à titre de variable indépendante est plus efficace que la déflation pour atténuer la distorsion relative au coefficient, même si le substitut présente une corrélation de 95 pour cent avec le véritable facteur d'échelle. En fait, la déflation peut accentuer la distorsion relative au coefficient. Aussi, il arrive souvent que la déflation, sans réduire de façon appréciable l'hétéroscédasticité, puisse diminuer l'efficience de l'estimation. Les erreurs‐types de White (1980) se rapprochent des erreurs véritables dans les régressions faisant appel à des variables non déflatées. La répétition des mêmes caractéristiques dans trois études comptables récentes confirme les résultats de la simulation. Les conclusions de l'étude donnent à penser que lorsque les différences d'échelle sont sujet de préoccupation, les chercheurs en comptabilité devraient faire intervenir un substitut d'échelle à titre de variable indépendante et formuler les inférences à partir des erreurs‐types de White.

The authors study a multilateral bargaining procedure that extends A. Rubinstein's (1982) alternating offer game to the case of n players. The procedure captures the notion of consistency in the sense familiar in cooperative game theory and they use it to establish links to the axiomatic theory of bargaining.

We present a new methodology for studying the problem of intra-firm bargaining, based on the notion that contracts cannot commit the firm and its agents to wages and employment. We develop and analyse a general non-cooperative multilateral bargaining framework between the firm and its employees and consider outcomes which are immune to renegotiations by any party. Equilibrium firm profits are characterizable as both a weighted average of a neo-classical (non-bargaining) firm's profits and a generalization of Shapley value for a corresponding cooperative game. Furthermore, the resulting payoffs induce economically significant distortions in the firm's input and organizational-design decisions.

This paper examines how interaction between endogenous human capital accumulation and technological change affects relative wages and economic growth. Private incentives to invest in human capital finance the employment of skilled labour in the education sector, while non-rival technology is a by-product of the education process. The absorption of new technologies into production is skill intensive, creates skill-biased labour demand, and increases the relative wage of skilled to unskilled labour. In contrast to recent models of endogenous growth, higher rates of technological change and growth may be accompanied by a higher relative wage but lower relative supply of skilled labour. Thus the model provides a theoretical foundation for the empirically observed relation between technological change and relative demand, supply and wages of skilled labour.